&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "Is gold still the ultimate safe haven in 2026? Here’s what banks and analysts forecast")
After delivering its strongest annual performance since 1971, the gold rally of 2025 is expected to moderate in 2026, with prices likely to stabilise at a higher range of $4,000–$4,500. The prices of gold will be determined by the factors that include US Federal Reserve (Fed) easing, robust central bank and retail demand, ETF inflows, elevated stock/bond correlations, and global debt concerns.
Meanwhile, major banks, including HSBC, ANZ, and Bank of America, updated their forecasts for 2026 and predicted that the rise of gold prices will be due to geopolitical risks in the US Federal Reserve policies and economic uncertainty. Analysts predicted that the demand for gold as a safe-haven and diversification asset will continue in 2026, according to a report in ET.
HSBC bank indicated that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, and the bank has also increased its 2025 average gold price forecast by $100 to $3,455 per ounce. It confirmed that the result of gold price will be driven by geopolitical tensions, global economic uncertainty, and a weakening US dollar.
Gold price expected to decline after June 2026?
The bank said the gold rally is expected to continue through the first half of 2026, supported by rising public debt levels and policy uncertainty. In addition, other major financial institutions have also revised the predictions of the gold price. ANZ predicted that gold is expected to rise to around $4,600 per ounce by June 2026. However, the price is expected to decline gradually in the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle.
Bank of America has lifted its gold price forecast for 2026 to $5,000 an ounce, while Goldman Sachs sees the metal reaching $4,900 by December that year. UBS said falling real interest rates, potentially turning negative, could drive prices close to $4,700.
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Societe Generale has also projected gold hitting $5,000 by the end of 2026. While estimates from Standard Chartered, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank and Citi Research vary, they broadly agree that the outlook remains bullish through 2025 and into early 2026.
Analysts say steady buying by central banks, retail investors and institutional funds will continue to underpin prices. Lower interest rates, policy uncertainty and diversification needs are expected to keep gold a key asset through 2026.
