Mumbai

India is poised to witness the driest monsoon rains in eight years, with the El Nino weather pattern limiting September precipitation following an August that is on track to be the driest in more than a century, two meteorological department officials told Reuters.

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The monsoon, which is critical to India's $3 trillion economy, provides over 70 percent of the rain required to hydrate crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. Nearly half of the farmland in the world's most populous nation lacks irrigation.

The summer rainfall shortage might raise the cost of staples like sugar, legumes, rice, and vegetables, as well as total food inflation, which reached its highest level since January 2020 in July.

Additionally, lower output may also lead India, the world's second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar, to place more restrictions on these commodities' exports.

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"El Nino dampened rainfall in August, and it will have a negative impact on rainfall in September," said a senior official with the India Meteorological Department (IMD). 

Furthermore, on August 31, Indian meteorological officials are anticipated to release their September forecast.

El Nino's Effect

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The IMD predicted a 4 per cent rainfall shortfall for the season in its most recent full-season projection on May 26, assuming a minor influence from the El Nino weather pattern.

El Nino is a warming of the Pacific seas that is often followed by drier weather across the Indian subcontinent. The current monsoon has been inconsistent, with June rainfall 9 percent below normal and July rains 13 percent above average.

The erratic distribution of monsoon rains has led India, the world's largest rice exporter, to limit rice shipments, impose a 40 per cent duty on onion exports, permit duty-free imports of pulses, and possibly prohibit sugar exports.

"India is on track to conclude the June-September monsoon season with a rainfall shortfall of at least 8 per cent, the most since 2015, when El Nino also reduced precipitation", according to the official cited by Reuters.

The southwest monsoon will begin to recede across northern India on or before September 17, according to another IMD official. He claims that the previous four Septembers have had above-average rainfall due to the monsoon's delayed exit.

"Northern and eastern states may experience below-normal rainfall in September. However, rain may return to the southern peninsula", according to the second official quoted by Reuters. 

(Inputs from Reuters)

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