China’s collateralised lending traps emerging economies in debt control crisis, says study

China’s increasing use of collateral to secure loans to emerging economies is eroding these countries’ ability to control their public finances, according to a new international study. By tying loans to revenues from commodities like oil and copper, and locking funds in offshore escrow accounts, Beijing has created what researchers call a “ring-fencing” mechanism, one that restricts debtor governments’ fiscal freedom for years.

The study, published on Thursday by researchers from AidData, the Kiel Institute, and Georgetown University, reviewed over 900 publicly guaranteed loans extended by Chinese state-owned entities between 2000 and 2021. Of these, nearly half worth US $418 billion, were found to be collateralised, largely targeting low-income and resource-rich nations.

How does collateralised lending work?

Unlike typical sovereign loans, China’s collateralised lending structure uses commodity export revenues, such as oil, gas, or minerals, as guarantees. In many cases, borrower countries are required to deposit the proceeds from these exports into escrow accounts located in China, controlled directly by the lenders.

“Some of these revenues remain offshore beyond the control of the borrowing government for many years,” the report noted, adding that the lack of access or transparency “compromises debtor governments’ ability to monitor and steer their fiscal affairs,” as quoted by Reuters.

The practice is prevalent in China’s lending to countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, particularly in those facing economic distress or weak governance.

The numbers behind the debt trap

Between 2000 and 2021, China’s lending to the developing world surged dramatically, both in volume and in complexity. The bar graph below, sourced from AidData, shows how collateralised lending (orange bars) surged after the 2008 financial crisis and peaked again in 2014–2016, accounting for the majority of total lending in those years.

Source: AidData / HCC; Graphic: Karin Strohecker via Reuters

(All figures in constant 2021 US dollars)

Notably, the average collateralised loan locks up over 20 per cent of a country’s annual external debt repayments, restricting budgetary resources and access to alternative credit, as per the study.

Fiscal control versus Chinese leverage

According to Brad Parks, Executive Director of AidData, the report highlights a “previously undocumented pattern of revenue ring-fencing,” in which Chinese lenders gain first claim on national income streams, often at the expense of domestic public spending or creditor negotiations.

In countries that later required debt restructuring, such as Zambia and Sri Lanka, China’s collateralised terms further complicated multilateral relief efforts, as Chinese banks refused to write down secured portions of the debt, as noted in the IMF-World Bank joint paper in 2023.

IMF, World Bank raise the red flag

Global financial institutions have expressed growing alarm. A 2023 paper by the IMF and World Bank warned that China’s practice increases the risk of over-borrowing, crowds out other unsecured creditors, and makes debt distress more likely, especially during commodity price shocks or political instability.

“The collateral mechanism may appear commercially rational from a lender’s perspective, but it severely constrains sovereign fiscal space,” said one IMF official, as quoted by Reuters.

A broader pattern of financial dominance

This lending strategy is part of China’s broader transformation into a global creditor. According to the Financial Times, Beijing extended over US $1.34 trillion in overseas credit during 2000–2021, with a growing share dedicated to critical mineral extraction, infrastructure-for-resources deals, and bailout-style rescue loans to countries facing economic collapse.

In fact, China provided US $240 billion in rescue financing to 22 countries between 2008 and 2021, positioning itself as a parallel lender of last resort to the IMF, albeit on very different terms.

For emerging economies desperate for infrastructure and liquidity, China’s cash may offer a lifeline, but at a cost. The use of commodity-backed, collateralised loans gives Beijing preferential repayment rights and direct control over a borrower’s key revenue streams, often outside the purview of national parliaments or the public.

With nearly half of China’s overseas loans now collateralised, and the debt burdens of many developing nations mounting, the study paints a troubling picture: a global financial system in which fiscal sovereignty is being steadily traded for short-term liquidity on China’s terms.

(With inputs from the agencies)