&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "Big boost for Rupee? RBI's forex push could bring $55–65 billion inflows in FY27, says SBI")
The RBI’s latest measures, including special forex swap options for FCNR(B) deposits and external commercial borrowings (ECBs), are likely to bring more foreign currency inflows worth $55–65 billion in FY27. The development will strengthen the rupee and improve India’s external position, according to a report by SBI Ecowrap.
The report indicated that RBI’s February and June 2026 measures show a coordinated strategy to neutralise the Indian rupee, attract long-term foreign capital, reduce pressure on external funding and deepen domestic debt markets. The expected inflows could mainly come through Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank (FCNR-B) deposits.
SBI Research projects that this channel alone could bring in nearly $40–45 billion, supported by attractive deposit rates and the RBI’s dollar-rupee swap facility. The Reserve Bank has opened a forex swap portal for fresh FCNR(B) deposits with tenures ranging from three to five years. SBI noted that a similar measure by RBI in 2013 helped India attract $24.5 billion during a period of high rupee pressure.
SBI projects BoP surplus of $5–10 billion
The report further estimates that an additional $15–20 billion may flow in through External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowing (OFCB) routes, as reduced hedging costs make overseas fundraising more appealing for banks and corporates. A major impact is expected on India's balance of payments (BoP). SBI Research has revised its FY27 outlook and now projects a surplus of $5–10 billion, a sharp turnaround from its earlier forecast of a $65–70 billion deficit.
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The report also anticipates banking sector deposit growth to improve to around 14.5–15 per cent, helping bridge the gap between credit and deposit growth while creating room for lower interest rates. At the same time, SBI cautioned that the RBI must remain proactive in addressing any weakness in the rupee and cannot afford to adopt a hands-off approach. “In the current environment, a passive approach could prove costly,” the report noted, and added that decisive intervention would help anchor expectations, control imported inflation and protect macro-financial stability.
The report further stated that expectations of an immediate interest rate hike cycle appear premature, arguing that the future policy framework should remain data-dependent. Amid growing global uncertainty and high currency volatility, SBI believes that the latest dollar inflow strategy of RBI could give the firepower required to defend the rupee.
