What Erdogan's misadventures mean for the Turkish economy
Erdogan rejects deal
Under Erdogan, Turkey has suffered tremendously.With declining foreign reserves, falling exports, a weak currency, and growing isolation, the Turkish economy is heading towards a downward spiral. Erdogan describes Turkey as an Islamic power. However, the fact is that the Turkish economy is too weak to support Erdogan's dreams to build a modern day Ottoman empire.
On Tuesday one headline dominated the front pages of Turkish newspapers. It was about Erdogan calling for a boycott of French goods. Currently, Turkey's economic woes are growing. Just like Europe, Turkey is witnessing a second wave of coronavirus cases.
A few days ago, it reported more than 2,000 cases. The spike has made investors anxious about the Turkish economy again, fearing that the prospects of a recovery could be fading.
Erdogan’s fight with France, a key European ally could further isolate the Turkish economy. The European Union now believes that Erdogan has contravened the spirit of trade arrangements with the EU with his boycott call against France. Some politicians are calling for a full blown suspension of the EU Customs Union with Turkey.
More targeted restrictions on Turkey cannot be ruled out. These include like the European Union shutting its doors on Turkish imports, which would mean that Turkey could lose its access to the European market.
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This would mark a major setback for the Turkish economy that was struggling before the pandemic. Its gross domestic product had dropped by close to 200 billion dollars. From 951 billion dollars in 2013 to 754 billion in 2019 in nominal terms.
And coronavirus made the situation worse: The Turkish economy contracted by close to 10 per cent in August, marking Turkey's worst year on year performance in a decade.
Erdogan's party, the AKP has reportedly lost its popularity. According to a poll in August, support for Erdogan's party had dropped to 31 per cent. In the 2018 parliamentary elections, Erdogan's party had secured 43 per cent of the vote.
Erdogan is planning to revive his ratings not by fixing the economy, but by picking fights with allies, nd waging proxy battles like the one in Nagorno-Karabakh. He is driving a campaign against France. Meanwhile, Turkey's currency the lira has slumped to a record low against the dollar, forcing Turkish authorities to sell billions of dollars to defend their currency.
Owing to this, there has been a major depletion in Turkey's foreign reserves. Erdogan's campaigns for world domination are bleeding Turkey's already suffering economy.