War over Greenland soon? America's Arctic-trained 11th airborne division on standby as more Danish troops arrive

If no deal is struck between US President Donald Trump and the governments of Denmark and its semi-autonomous region Greenland, a limited armed confrontation is likely to follow. Both sides have ramped up their troop deployment or readiness. For a peaceful region, the current levels of committed troops or planned deployments are unusual. NORAD is sending troops, Danish military has send reinformcements, and NATO is getting involved more. An all-out war is highly unlikely if a stopgap arrangement is reached at Davos or afterwards on Trump's desire to control Greenland. But at the time of writing, practically all sides appear to be preparing for war while denying that anything is out of the ordinary. Here is a roundup.

For Minnesota or Arctic? Pentagon has placed 1,500 active-duty solders on standby

The US defence department has given 'prepare-to-deploy' orders to 1,500 active-duty soldiers from two infantry battalions of the 11th Airborne Division. The Arctic-warfare trained soldiers are based at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson and Fort Wainwright in Alaska. The 11th Airborne Division is the US Army’s primary Arctic and cold-weather formation. While the official version is for possible domestic deployment to Minnesota amid fighting between locals and immigration officials of ICE, there are doubts in defence news outlets that the standby could be for Greenland. The stated mission is to back federal authorities and protect federal facilities if unrest escalates in Minnesota, but note that such duties are usually handled by the National Guard.

The Insurrection Act of 1807 could be invoked if state authorities are deemed unable to restore order. Pentagon spokespeople insisted there is no connection between the standby order and any overseas military operation, but it could also be a pressure tactic by the US on Greenland.

Danish authorities increase military presence and readiness

Denmark has dispatched more than 100 combat soldiers to Greenland, with the chief of the Royal Danish Army, Peter Boysen, leading a "substantial contribution" of troops landing in Kangerlussuaq. At least 58 Danish troops have joined about 60 others already there to participate in Operation Arctic Endurance exercise. This includes guarding critical infrastructure and providing assistance to local authorities.
The Danish military deployments include personnel, patrol assets, and airfield security elements. These so-called ‘defensive’ deployments are focused on sovereignty and surveillance.

NORAD arrives amid NATO's increased involvement in Arctic defence

NATO allies are conducting or have planned Arctic exercises involving cold-weather operations, air defence, and logistics. European NATO countries, such as Germany, Sweden, France, Norway, the Netherlands, Finland, and the UK, are deploying small numbers of military personnel to Greenland for joint exercises with Denmark. This is largely to show solidarity with Greenald, moslty described as reconnaissance and preparatory missions.

Meanwhile, NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, has continued its 'routine' operations in Greenland from Pituffik Space Base. These ops include air defence, missile warning, and surveillance missions. NORAD exercises are also being described as planned and recurring. NORAD Aircraft are arriving to support 'long-planned activities' coordinated with Denmark.

The US already maintains about 200 troops in Pituffik permanently. It also has a plan for airfield upgrades worth up to $25 million.

All this military buildup is unusual for a so-far peaceful region, while everyone is insisting that it is 'routine' or 'planned/scheduled'.