US elections: What are swing states? Will they decide fate of 2024 presidential contenders Harris and Trump?

As the 2024 United States presidential election is getting closer, the focus is on a select group of so-called 'swing states' that will likely determine the outcome of the race. Approximately 240 million Americans are eligible to vote in the presidential elections and these battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — will be crucial in deciding who will become the next president.

What are swing states?

Generally speaking, swing states or battleground statesare famous for their lack of predictable voting patterns, making them highly contested by both Democrats and Republicans. In the final months leading up to the election, both campaigns concentrate their efforts on these regions, where a relatively small number of undecided voters can swing the result in favour of either candidate, in this year's caseKamala Harris and Donald Trump.

These battlegrounds are shaping up to be focal points due to their unique political and social dynamics. For instance, issues such as immigration, abortion, and economic performance particularly resonate in these states.

Why are they called swing states? It is because of their voting pattern in most of the past elections. These states don’t vote for the party, they vote for the policies, which is not the case with non-swing states.

In Arizona, for example, the debate over immigration policy and recent controversies surrounding abortion access are likely to play a very important role.

These issues have become rallying points for both candidates, with Trump criticising Vice President Kamala Harris'record on immigration and promising significant policy changes if re-elected.

Similarly, Georgia’s significance is amplified by its historical context and demographic composition. The state has witnessed intense scrutiny over election integrity in the last election and has a substantial African-American population that played a crucial role in incumbent Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.

Economic issues are also prominent in these key states because most of themare struggling post-Covid pandemic.

Several of these states have high unemployment rates, which presents a significant challenge for Democrats, currently in power. Trump’s promises of lower taxes and reduced regulations resonate with voters concerned about economic stagnation.

Pennsylvania, too, is grappling with inflation and rising living costs, which could sway voter sentiment as both candidates focus on economic relief measures.

In Michigan, the focus has shifted to foreign policy and its impact on local voters.

Biden's support for Israel, amidst its ongoing conflict with Hamas and the rest of the West Asian region, has created a backlash, particularly among the state's Arab-American community. This sentiment is being leveraged by Trump, who continues to criticise Biden’s handling of international affairs.

North Carolina and Wisconsin also remain in focus, with their tight polling results and historical trends making them unpredictable. North Carolina’s recent polling suggests a highly competitive race, and Trump’s choice to hold a significant rally there underscores its importance.

Wisconsin, with its narrow margins of victory in past elections, remains a critical battleground where every vote matters.

So when we look at it overall, the outcome of the 2024 USelection will depend on these swing states. Their diverse issues and competitive nature make them the epicentres of political strategy and voter engagement.

As both campaigns ramp up their efforts, the focus on these pivotal regions will be crucial in determining the next president of the United States.