Saudi nuclear deal, Turkey F-35 bid: How US strategy could reshape Middle East power balance

The Middle East’s military and strategic equation is witnessing a major shift as Washington deepens defence and nuclear cooperation with key regional partners. A potential US-Saudi civilian nuclear deal, alongside moves linked to advanced fighter jet sales, including the possible return of Turkey to the F-35 programme, could reshape alliances, fuel competition and alter the region’s balance of power.

Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions and the Iran factor

For Saudi Arabia, access to US nuclear technology marks a significant step in its ambition to diversify beyond oil and build a domestic nuclear energy sector. The agreement aims to bring American nuclear companies into Riyadh’s plans while maintaining non-proliferation commitments. However, the deal has raised concerns in Washington and Israel over uranium enrichment and the possibility of a future regional arms race.

The nuclear pact also carries geopolitical weight. Saudi Arabia has long sought greater security guarantees from Washington as it faces threats from Iran and regional armed groups. Closer US-Saudi cooperation could strengthen Riyadh’s strategic position while helping Washington compete with growing Chinese and Russian influence in the Gulf

F-35 diplomacy and Turkey’s changing military role

The defence side of the equation is equally significant. The F-35, considered one of the world’s most advanced stealth fighter jets, has traditionally been tightly controlled by Washington because of concerns over maintaining Israel’s “qualitative military edge” in the region. Any expansion of F-35 access among US partners in the region could alter existing military balances.

Turkey’s possible return to the F-35 programme would carry its own implications. Ankara was removed from the programme after purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile defence system, with US law restricting transfers until the issue is resolved. If Turkey regains access, it would strengthen NATO’s second-largest military and significantly boost its air power.

Israel’s security concerns amid a shifting regional balance

The emerging defence partnerships are being closely watched in Israel, where maintaining a military edge in the region has remained a key priority. Washington has traditionally sought to preserve Israel’s qualitative military edge, ensuring that arms transfers to regional partners do not undermine Israel’s technological advantage.

As Saudi Arabia pursues deeper strategic ties with Washington and Turkey seeks renewed access to advanced US defence technology, Israeli officials are likely to closely monitor how these agreements could affect the region’s security equation. Any expansion of advanced weapons systems among US partners could prompt calls in Israel for assurances that its qualitative military edge remains protected.

The developments also come at a time of heightened regional competition, with Iran likely to view stronger US-backed cooperation among its rivals. Tehran could view these moves as a challenge to its influence and security interests in the region.

Together, the potential US-Saudi nuclear agreement and evolving defence ties with Turkey reflect a broader transformation in the Middle East, where countries are competing for advanced technology, energy security and greater strategic influence.