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Oil prices plunged over 5% while Asian markets gained amid hopes of a possible US-Iran peace deal, despite Donald Trump downplaying imminent progress. Brent crude fell below $99 a barrel as investors tracked ceasefire developments, Gulf shipping disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices plunged over five percent and Asian markets ticked up early on Monday (May 25) as reports suggested that the US and Iran may sign a peace agreement to end the ongoing conflict. AFP reported that as of around 2300 GMT Sunday, the price of North Sea Brent crude slipped 5.1 percent to $98.22 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 5.2 percent to $91.57 a barrel before recovering slightly. Japan's Nikkei share index rose more than 2.5 percent as of around 0030 GMT. Sydney crept slightly higher, while Hong Kong and Seoul were closed for public holidays.
This comes after US President Donald Trump hinted that the peace deal to end Iran war has been “largely negotiated” and both sides have agreed to reopen the Strait of Homuz. Iranian officials were also quoted in several reports saying the the Hormuz traffic will return to pre-war levels within 30 days of signing a deal with the United States. The deal has not yet been finalised but Pakistan, that is acting as a mediator has expressed hopes to host the two sides for a fresh round of talks. Trump also warned that the negotiations are proceeding in an “orderly and constructive manner” and US representatives have been advised to “not to rush into a deal." The conflict erupted after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, and the Islamic republic responded with missile and drone attacks across the region. The United States and Iran have observed a ceasefire since April 8 while mediators push for a negotiated settlement, although the Strait of Hormuz has remained largely blocked.
The sharp fall in global crude oil prices could bring temporary relief for Indians, which imports more than 85 percent of its crude oil needs. Lower Brent crude prices may ease pressure on oil marketing companies and reduce the chances of another immediate fuel price hike after four increases in 10 days. India announced a fuel price hike for the fourth time on Monday (May 25) with petrol been hiked by ₹2.61 per litre and diesel prices been hiked by ₹2.71 per litre.
A decline in oil prices can also help contain inflation, lower transport and logistics costs, and reduce the burden on the Indian rupee by cutting the country's import bill. Sectors heavily dependent on fuel — including aviation, transport and manufacturing — may benefit if crude prices remain lower for a sustained period.
However, uncertainty remains high as the US-Iran conflict is still unresolved and tensions around Gulf shipping routes and the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten global energy supplies. Any fresh escalation could once again push crude prices sharply higher and impact fuel prices in India. Experts also say that the signing of peace deal won't solve the worldwide energy crisis immediately.