Donald Trump has been talking about a possible third term as US president for some time. While it's a Herculean task, he would inadvertently open up a political pandora's box if he succeeds. Inside that box could be a Democrat former president with whom he never had a direct contest: Barack Obama.

Advertisment

Trump, who said he was “not joking” about serving a third term, also indicated he would 'love' a possible matchup with Obama in 2028.

He might have some legal loopholes that could allow him to serve a third term, but has been ambivalent about exploring those options. So all these are in the realm of possibilities and speculations right now. But let's still look at what could happen, because politics is the art of the possible, isn't it? 

 

Advertisment

 

Really, is a third term possible for Trump? What will he have to do for it?

Advertisment

Two-term limits were not etched in the Constitution but were an unwritten rule and practice in the US. One must note that George Washington, the first president of the US, had refused to serve a third term in 1796.

The need was felt to limit presidential terms to four years after Franklin D Roosevelt served as president from 1933 to 1945. Though these unprecedented four terms were partly due to the exigencies of World War II, term limits were introduced through a constitutional amendment.  

Barack Obama accepts presidency affected his relationship with wife Michelle: 'Was in a deep deficit'

The 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution, ratified on 27 February 1951, limited the presidential term to two four-year periods. 

Also, a vice president who has served as president due to the death or resignation of a president can be elected as president only twice. In other words, it can be two years as a successor (vice president taking up presidential duties) plus two full terms as president (if elected). This combination of successor plus two elected terms as president adds up to a total of 10 years, and is the maximum allowed under the Constitution.

'Mop the floor with this piece of s**t': Obama aides say former president should run against Trump for next term

This is where Trump could have a loophole. He can potentially make his current deputy JD Vance run for president in 2028, with him in the ticket as vice president. If elected, Vance could resign and allow Trump to become president using the succession route.

But there's still a problem: the 12th Amendment of the US Constitution. That amendment states that a person who is constitutionally ineligible to the office of president can't run for vice president. So the 22nd Amendment prohibits Trump from running for a third term as president and by extension, that ineligibility prevents him from contesting as a vice presidential candidate too.

The third route is based on the line of succession: the US House speaker is the third in line, and if Trump can become the House speaker and make both the president and vice president resign, then he has a chance of becoming president.

‘Didn't have faith in her’: Obama worked against Kamala Harris in US elections, book reveals

All this is complicated, and the straightforward path would be by repealing the 22nd Amendment itself. That's easier said than done. 

Repealing an amendment would require a two-thirds majority of both House and Senate or two-thirds approval from all state-level legislatures and ratification by three-fourths of 50 states in a constitutional convention, last used 33 years ago. 

How Trump seeking a third term also opens up another race for Obama

If Trump indeed manages to amend the relevant laws to contest for a third term, that would open up chances for Obama to fight again. That is most likely to be a recipe for disaster for the Republican.

Let me explain.

The Obama camp in the Democrat party has already made noises about bringing back the former president for another term. Social media was awash with memes and reactions, saying that if Trump can come back for a third term, so can Obama.

Why Obama's Hamilton College appearance is significant

Amid this, Obama himself made his first major direct comments against the Trump administration.

"Imagine if  I had done any of these", he said, referring to Trump's recent actions, to claps and cheers from the Hamilton College crowd this past week.

"It’s unimaginable that the same parties that are silent now would have tolerated behavior like that from me or a whole bunch of my predecessors,” he added for good measure.

Obama's Hamilton College remarks, by all appearances, was a staged event. Former presidents do not speak in colleges that often. This was the first major appearance of a big politician outside of convocation speeches in Hamilton College. It's largely a Democrat-leaning institution, so the choice of venue appears to be deliberate. Obama was essentially speaking to the converted: a crowd enamoured of him already. 

Obama's third term was something many Americans wished

Back when Obama ended his second consecutive term, many supporters missed him. Some of them went to social media and asked him to stay, even though they knew it was constitutionally impossible.

Obama himself had said he would have won the 2016 election if it was possible to contest. He was speaking on a podcast with his former advisor David Axelrod.

But let us move speculation aside and look at reality. 

Even if Obama won't be contesting, he will be very much in the race of 2028 because...

After the debacle of 2024, Democrats are still picking up the pieces and recouping. The damage done to the party through its directionless campaign is still being addressed. Joe Biden was pushed out of the race by Democrat bigwigs, to bring in then-Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost to Trump. Now, the party is in the process of naming a new leader, and none of the current contestants are popular or familiar faces.

Democratic Party is a combination of all kinds of left-leaning politicians, extending from extreme left to moderates and centrists. Neither Biden nor Harris was able to bring all of these constituencies under singular leadership. Barack Obama has the potential to change that.

'Artist must have lost her talent': Trump melts down over ‘bad picture’, says Obama’s portrait ‘looks wonderful’

There is a good chance that the Democratic party, in dire need of such a unifying leadership face, could rally behind Obama. As for the Democratic party, the Chicago wing is among the most effective political machines, with operatives like Axelrod and Rahm Emannuel who can still pack a punch. Chicago is Obama's base, and he would direct the future course of action for the party, with or without taking a formal official post. The brutal Chicago Democrat machine can bring back various factions of the Democrats under one ideological roof, led by an elder statesman like Obama.

Democrats have the tough task of bringing back the key voter bases it appears to have lost: Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims and other minorities, as well as women. Obama's past policies are likely to make him a more suitable leader in the eyes of the LGBTQ+ community, which is numerically insignificant but politically influential. 

So the Hamliton College event can be seen as the first of such efforts by the Democratic party to reach out to its constituents, not just as a friendly banter at a random educational institution by Obama.

Can Michelle Obama divorce rumours dent Barack Obama's popularity?

While his charisma and political acumen still attract fans, Obama has had a rough patch lately when it comes to reports about his married life. His banter with Trump after his election reportedly did not go down well with Michelle, who also broke protocol and missed the Trump inauguration. Rumour mills worked overtime to report on problems in the Obamas marriage, even hinting at splitsville.

At the Hamilton College appearance, Obama himself addressed it.

“I was in a deep deficit with my wife,” he told  Hamilton College President Steven Tepper, adding, "I have been trying to dig myself out of that hole by doing occasionally fun things.”

A divorce, or even continuing rumours about it, can become a deficit for Obama if he campaigns for 2028 either as a candidate or as a supporter.

Americans still have this Utopian view of the First Family being a 'model family'. In American politics, being an ideal couple is political capital. 

That's probably the reason why Obama made the public remarks about an issue that he's well aware has been making the rounds of newshours for some time.

One way or the other, one thing is for sure: Hamilton College will not be an one-off event for Barack Obama. He will be back, from the mid-term elections onwards and very much into the 2028 presidential elections. Whether he will be on the ballot, will depend on Trump's manoeuvres for a third term.

Under the current circumstances, Trump is best advised NOT to go that route.