India in the crosshairs as Trump announces 25% tariff on Iran trade partners; protest death toll rises to 648

US President Donald Trump on Monday (Jan 12) announced a sweeping new pressure move against Iran - a 25 per cent tariff on any country that continues doing business with Tehran while trading with the United States. Notably, New Delhi has a long history of trade and strategic ties with Tehran, including energy imports and the Chabahar Port project. The tariffs come as rights groups warn that Iran's crackdown on mass protests has turned increasingly lethal, with at least 648 people killed.

When will the tariffs be imposed? How will India be affected?

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the tariff would take effect "immediately" and described the order as "final and conclusive," without naming specific countries. According to data from Trading Economics, Iran's main trading partners include China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. India has also been one of Tehran's top five trade partners in recent years. In 2024–25, according to the Indian Embassy in Tehran, India's trade with Iran totalled $1.68 billion, including $1.24 billion in exports and $440 million in imports.

The tariff announcement comes amid more than two weeks of nationwide unrest in Iran. What began as protests over economic hardship has since evolved into one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution that ousted the Shah. Demonstrations have continued despite a near-total internet blackout and the use of live fire by security forces.

Which nations will be affected?

On X, Brian Krassenstein, an anti-Trump influencer and podcaster, pointed out that the 25 per cent tariffs would be borne by Americans buying from several countries, including India.

Death toll rises to 648

The Norway-based group Iran Human Rights said it has confirmed at least 648 deaths linked to the crackdown, including nine minors. The organisation warned the real toll could be far higher, "according to some estimates, more than 6,000". It also said that around 10,000 people may have been arrested, adding that the communications shutdown has made it "extremely difficult to independently verify these reports".

Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, the group’s director, insisted that the "international community has a duty to protect civilian protesters against mass killing by the Islamic republic."

Foreign interference?

Iranian authorities have meanwhile sought to blame foreign powers for stirring unrest. On Monday, the government organised mass rallies across the country. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the pro-government demonstrations showed the protest movement had been defeated and warned the United States against interference. "These massive rallies, full of determination, have thwarted the plan of foreign enemies that were supposed to be carried out by domestic mercenaries," he said, according to state TV.