How will the Ukraine war end? Here are the two possible futures ahead of Trump-Zelensky meet

The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska has ended, but peace in Ukraine still feels distant. Instead of clarity, two outcomes are coming into focus. Ukraine could emerge as a smaller but sovereign nation, shielded by the West. Or it could lose not just territory but also its independence. Which of these paths the war will take remains unclear after the Alaska summit, which was more of a photo-op.

What did Putin signal in Alaska?

Russian President Vladimir Putin brushed aside Western calls for a ceasefire that would freeze the front line before negotiations. Instead, he made clear he intends to press on until Moscow’s broader goals are met.

“We are convinced that, in order for the Ukrainian settlement to be sustainable and long-term, all the root causes of the crisis, which have been repeatedly discussed, must be eliminated, all of Russia’s legitimate concerns must be taken into account, and a fair balance in the field of security in Europe and the world as a whole must be restored,” Putin said after the summit. He added that Ukraine’s security should be guaranteed, but past talks have shown how contested such promises are.

Russia’s full conquest of Kyiv has already failed, and Ukraine’s resistance continues to blunt Russian advances. Yet Kyiv’s ability to expel Moscow’s troops entirely is fading. The war has settled into a grinding stalemate where neither side can achieve outright victory. This reality has narrowed the options for how Europe’s biggest war since 1945 might end.

Scenario one: Partition with protection

Kyiv has quietly accepted that regaining all of its lost territory may be beyond its reach. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently signalled he was open to talks about territory, after a cease-fire that locks in current positions. Neither Ukraine nor its European allies would formally accept Russia’s gains, fearing it would reward aggression. But they may live with Moscow’s control of roughly a fifth of Ukraine’s land. The priority then would be securing the rest of Ukraine’s sovereignty. That could involve strengthening Ukrainian defences, coupled with Western and possibly US security guarantees. Trump’s recent hints of support have raised European hopes, though America’s role is still unclear.

Scenario two: Partition with subordination

Another scenario is not just territorial loss, but political submission. Russia has demanded limits on Ukraine’s army, restrictions on Western weapons, and even changes to Ukraine’s constitution, leadership, and cultural identity. If Kyiv is forced into such concessions, what remains of Ukraine could become a de facto protectorate under Moscow. That would leave it vulnerable to future invasions and erode its democratic ambitions. For Ukrainians, this outcome would represent more than lost land, it would mean surrendering their sovereignty.