'NATO could be at its weakest since birth': Can Trump deny aid to allies without actually exiting the alliance?

The NATO alliance is confronting what analysts describe as its most serious crisis since its establishment in 1949, driven primarily by US President Donald Trump’s anger over European refusal to support American and Israeli military operations related to the war in Iran. Trump has expressed frustration that European navies will not help secure the Strait of Hormuz in response to the conflict, which has triggered sharp divisions within the transatlantic alliance.

Trump’s Threats and Statements

In a series of escalating remarks this week, the President has declared that US membership in NATO is now "beyond reconsideration," calling the 77-year-old alliance a 'paper tiger'. He also voiced ‘disgust’ that allies like France, Spain, and Italy have not only refused to providing military support for Operation Epic Fury, labeling the conflict potentially illegal under international law. Trump specifically targeted British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, mocking the UK’s naval capabilities and stating, "You don't even have a navy... you're too old and had aircraft carriers that didn't work." These remarks have raised unprecedented concern that the US might not fulfil mutual defence commitments under NATO’s core Article 5.

Europe’s response has been cautious. US officials have insisted that NATO “cannot be a one‑way street,” arguing that allies must do more to support collective security. The relationship between Trump and French President Macron collapsed into a "fierce feud" this week after the US President mocked Macron's marriage and mimic his accent, prompting the French leader to publicly dismiss the remarks as "neither elegant nor up to standard."

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European Confidence Tested

Analysts say that for many European governments, NATO’s post‑Cold War role as the linchpin of regional security is no longer taken for granted. Max Bergmann, former State Department official, told Reuters, the alliance was in “the worst place (NATO) has been since it was founded,” highlighting deep apprehension among diplomats and military officials.

Some European military figures have begun contemplating defence structures that do not rely on the United States. General François Lecointre, France’s former armed forces chief, was quoted by reuters saying, “NATO remains necessary, but we must be capable of thinking of NATO without the Americans."

But combined with other barbs aimed at Europeans in recent weeks, Trump's comments have provoked unprecedented concern that the US will not come to help the European allies should they be attacked, whether or not Washington formally walks away.

“NATO remains necessary, but Europe must be able to think about it without the United States,” a former French armed forces chief told Reuters.

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Legally, a US withdrawal from NATO would face hurdles. A 2023 US law requires a two‑thirds Senate vote to exit the alliance, making unilateral withdrawal difficult. Nevertheless, analysts note that as commander‑in‑chief, the President could choose not to commit US forces to defend allies, which could effectively weaken the alliance without a formal exit.

Implications for Global Security

NATO has faced strains before, including during Donald Trump’s first term (2017–2021), when he considered withdrawing from the alliance. His recent remarks add to signs of renewed instability, alongside moves that have unsettled European allies, including threats in January to take control of Greenland and policies seen as accommodating towards Russia, which NATO identifies as its primary security threat.

The tensions carry wider implications for global security, given NATO’s central role in deterring Russian aggression. European leaders stress the need to preserve unity, even as Trump’s rhetoric raises questions about the future of transatlantic defence cooperation.