Explained: Here's how Italy can qualify for 2026 FIFA World Cup ahead of Norway clash

Italy’s dream of playing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup will take a decisive turn on Sunday (Nov 16) as they face group leaders Norway. In what will be a crucial clash for both Norway and Italy at the iconic San Siro, anything less than a win for the latter will see them enter the Playoffs for a third consecutive time. So ahead of the key clash, here are all the details on how Italy could qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

What are the current standings?

Playing in Group I, Norway have a perfect record of seven wins out of seven and sit top of the pile. For Italy, they are second in the group, having picked up six wins from seven matches and their only defeat of the qualification came against Norway in the away fixture. Norway’s perfect record means they have 21 points with a goal difference of +29 from seven matches and Italy are on 18 points with a goal difference of +12 from the same number of matches.

ALSO READ | From Leonard Hutton to Don Bradman, 5 batters with highest individual score in Ashes

How can Italy qualify for the 2026 World Cup?

As things stand, winners of Group I will directly qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while a runner-up spot guarantees a Playoff berth. Italy will have to win by a margin of nine goals against Norway at San Siro on Sunday, which is the only way they can take the top spot. A nine-goal win margin means Italy’s goal difference will rise to +21, while Norway's goal difference will drop to +20. This will mean that if Italy manage the impossible task, they will qualify for the FIFA World Cup ahead of Norway.

This means that even a defeat for Norway with a small margin will see them qualify for the FIFA World Cup on goal difference.

ALSO READ | From Steve Smith to Joe Root, 5 active batters with most runs in Ashes

Playoff route

If Gennaro Gattuso’s side fails to reach the FIFA World Cup directly, they will have another opportunity to reach the showpiece event through the Playoffs route. Since Italy are already guaranteed a top two finish, they will play in a Playoff contest comprising four teams in a path. These Playoff matches will be played in March over a single leg, with teams ranked higher in FIFA rankings hosting the matches. In this case, Italy will host both the Playoff semifinal and final with an opportunity to reach their first FIFA World Cup since the 2014 tournament.