The Melbourne Test match between India and Australia is hanging in the balance as both sides push for a place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final in June 2025. With India running out of games and in a do-or-die situation, it is a desperate time for Rohit Sharma’s men if they are to dream of a third consecutive final. However, considering the state of the MCG Test, a draw is more likely result as we enter the decisive phase. So here is the scenario of things if the MCG Test match ends in a draw at the MCG.

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What is the current WTC standing?

Entering the Boxing Day Test, India sit third in the WTC standings with a win percentage (PCT) of 55.88 while Australia occupy the second spot with 58.89 PCT. On the other hand, South Africa are top of the standings with 63.33 and are likely to seal a top-two berth in the WTC standings if they beat Pakistan in the Centurion Test. Despite sitting below New Zealand in the standings, Sri Lanka are still in with a chance to reach the WTC final as they have two matches in hand.

What happens if Boxing Day Test ends in draw?

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In case the Boxing Day Test ends in a draw, both India and Australia will drop points in the WTC standings meaning the former’s chances of making the final will hang in balance. India will have a PCT of 54.63 and will sit third while Australia will remain second with a PCT of 57.29. In this case, India’s fate of reaching the WTC final will be out of their hands with them needing to win the Sydney Test and other results going their way.

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What needs to happen for India if they are to play in the WTC final after the MCG draw?

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In case the MCG contest ends in a draw, the Indian team will have no option but to go for a win in the Sydney Test. If India win the Sydney Test, they will be second in the WTC standings and Australia will have to win 2-0 against Sri Lanka when they tour the island nation in January. Even a 1-0 win for Australia against Sri Lanka will see India qualify for the WTC final.

However, if India draw the Sydney Test, then Rohit and Co will need a helping hand from Sri Lanka to reach the summit clash. Sri Lanka should either win the two-match series against Australia 1-0 or the series should end in a draw (0-0 or 1-1). Any other result will see the result will see either Sri Lanka or Australia qualify for the final.

In case India lose the Sydney Test after the MCG draw, they will be eliminated from the race to qualify for the WTC standings.

Note: All assumptions made considering there is no drop of points due to slow overate.