WION Spotlight | Will Bolsonaro do a Trump in Brazil post-election? 

The presidential election in Brazil is turning out to be a cliffhanger with the odds-on-favourite, the leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, faring far worse than expected against the right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of voting held on October 2.

Predictably, this has given rise to speculation as to whether Bolsonaro, in the event of losing the election in the run-off to be held on October 30, will lead an ‘uprising” in Brazil much like the attack on the US Capitol instigated by then president Donald Trump in January 2021.

There are many reasons cited for these apprehensions about how the elections in Brazil may end or get upended.

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The main reason for the widespread suspicion that President Bolsonaro may cling on to power by any means is that he bagged 43.2 per cent of the votes to Lula’s 48.4 per cent in the first round. This was in sharp contrast to pollsters’ predictions which gave Lula an outright victory with a lead of 10 to 15 per cent.

With the opinion polls turning out to be wide off the mark, Bolsonaro has become more strident in claiming, much like Trump did in the US presidential election, that in a ‘clean’ election, his victory is assured. This suggests that in the event of losing to Lula on October 30, he would persist with accusations of the elections being a fraud and the election authorities having plotted against him. He may seek to re-enact, before the runoff and post-election, exactly what Trump did and spur an assault on Brazil’s constitutional offices.

Bolsonaro may be emboldened in resorting to such tactics by the fact that his conservative coalition is set for a comfortable majority in both chambers of Brazil’s Congress although Lula leads in the presidential sweepstakes.

As for Lula, in the past, he had won his two terms as president in the runoff and not in the first round of voting. Therefore, it should not be surprising if Lula gets the better of Bolsonaro in the runoff this time too.

As matters stand, Lula’s troubles may well begin after the run-off, regardless of whether he wins or loses. Should he win, apart from the threat of an extra-parliamentary challenge that may be mounted by Bolsonaro, Lula would have to contend with his rival’s superior numbers in the Congress. Besides, Lula’s success, in keeping with the wave of Left victories in recent months in Mexico, Colombia, Argentina and Chile, may encourage Bolsonaro, aided by powerful external forces, to revive past allegations against him to keep him out of office.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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