New Delhi

China-watching, like astrology, is a complex business that requires about 48 hours in a day that does not obtain in reality. And I am no China expert. Yet, minor consolations trigger sensible thoughts that must be shared.

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I have just finished reading two excellent articles on the latest incident at Tawang where Indian soldiers have laudably beaten back the People's Liberation Army (PLA) counterparts. Both by retired generals who have drawn opposing inferences from the same data with a fair sense of understanding of Beijing's power politics in a larger context. One suggests that without President Xi Jinping's approval, the incident in which hundreds of soldiers tried to seize a military post on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) would not have occurred because Xi needs to revive sentimental Chinese nationalism amid domestic protests linked to a sagging economy hurt by zero-Covid policies. The other dips into the fragile relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the PLA in history and locates Xi's attempts as a newly minted civilian commander-in-chief of the army to influence it even as elements of coup and sycophancy alike lurk behind China's proverbial bamboo curtain.

Phew! There's enough material up there for two or three B-grade Hollywood flicks, but I am going to ask a simple Indian question: how are we going to play this and how should we play this? Some details should not matter to us, such as whether Xi officially asked his troops to do what they did -- because we may never get an answer. But the responsibility for that must squarely lie with Xi. Somebody in New Delhi ought to tell this to the mandarins who matter.

Also Read | Tawang skirmish: Chinese army alleges Indian troops 'illegally' crossed LAC

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In the context of planned air force exercises between India and the United States in the Arunachal Pradesh region that is home to Tawang, I am inclined to believe that the LAC misadventure was a diplomatic signal from Beijing to Delhi. Global militarist thinking is more about the display of strength than a desire for peace as it is based on the 'strength respects strength' logic. We need to go by that principle, as Indian soldiers have indeed done both in Tawang and two years ago in the Galwan zone of Ladakh. However, having lost precious lives in Galwan, there is a need for India to go that extra mile.

There is geopolitical jostling involving the United States, Russia and China, with Taiwan, North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan very much in the picture. From the point of view of the US State Department, India should be added to the list -- and this is precisely what India has to resist. Foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has been very articulate about India's desire and moral case for sovereignty and its wish for an independent foreign policy. This is clearly shown in the way India has balanced its purchase of Russian oil after the Ukraine war broke out even as it offered to be a friendly, neutral party to end the war.

In such a context, references by the Pentagon calling India a "partner" or "ally" on the China issue as it seems to have done undermines India's credibility. Washington needs a "Thanks, but no thanks" message from New Delhi. Lots of diplomatic work ahead for Dr. Jaishankar there, with things to be finessed.

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India needs to deftly get out of the Patronised Ally Syndrome to an Equally Sovereign Orbit. What India needs is peace without the fuss, sovereignty without the loneliness of diplomatic isolation, and strength without a military cost that would reduce its focus on economic and social issues at home.

This is where India has to go that extra mile by bringing in trade issues to the forefront. China needs to be told that there is a price to be paid in trade if there is adventurism on the LAC.

Also Read | China-India Tawang faceoff not a surprise: What is different now?

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has been pointing out how India imports too much of 'substandard' goods from China and how the Modi government's production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme is aimed at reducing the trade deficit by boosting domestic manufacture of goods currently imported from China, the most ubiquitous of which is the smartphone.

One report notes that India's imports from China have nearly doubled since the 2020 clash in Galwan. India's trade deficit with China was about $1 billion in the 2003/4 fiscal year and surged to $44 billion in 2020/21 and then zoomed past $73 billion in 2021/22.

The writing is on the Indian side of the Great Wall of China: New Delhi reserves the right to impose sanctions linked to border violations -- or ought to think on those lines. Soldiers on the border have shown that strength respects strength. The government has to show that this maxim also extends to trade in an interconnected world. Some clues lie in that 'substandard' word used by the commerce minister.

Like many China experts, we can bring in all sorts of geopolitical, historical, and military details into this, but President Xi must get to see an India that is sovereign and peace-loving, and yet not the vulnerable nation that got a nasty surprise in 1962 when the brotherly Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai slogan soured close to where there has been military action of late. Memories can be painful, but much water has flowed down the Brahmaputra since then.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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