India lost a slice of green the size of its summer comfort: Study links 25 years of vanishing vegetation to hotter summers

In 2001, green cover blanketed nearly 37 percent of India. By 2025, it had shrunk to 31.35 percent, and the country's summers have grown hotter in step, a new study by Climate Trends shows.

The study, ‘Assessment of Green Cover Dynamics and Their Influence on Summer Temperature across India Using MODIS Land Cover and ERA5 Reanalysis Data,’ found green cover fell 5.6 percent between 2001 and 2025, from roughly 36.95 percent to 31.35 percent. Non-green land, meaning built-up and sparsely vegetated surfaces, grew from 63.05 percent to 68.65 percent.

Throughout the period, non-green surfaces ran 1 to 2.5°C hotter in summer than green-covered areas. Regions that lost vegetation saw mean summer temperatures rise by 0.26°C.

Dr Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends, said, “The findings clearly demonstrate that vegetation is not merely an ecological asset; it is an important component of India's climate-adaptation infrastructure.” She added that protecting natural vegetation "should therefore be treated as an adaptation priority."

A patchwork of loss and gain

Green-cover loss was concentrated in western India, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, parts of central India and areas of peninsular India. Gains appeared in pockets of the northeastern states, the Himalayan foothills, and scattered parts of southern and eastern India. Warming was most evident in northwestern and northern India, while parts of central and southern India saw localised cooling.

Green areas are not immune, however. Both categories warmed over time, which shows that regional climate change matters alongside land cover.

Dr S K Dhaka, Professor of Atmospheric Physics at Delhi University, said, "Vegetation restoration can reduce local thermal stress, but it should not be viewed as a substitute for broader climate action." He called for a "dual strategy": preventing further loss of established vegetation, targeted restoration in heat-vulnerable regions, and stronger action on water management, urban planning and emissions.

The wider backdrop

The findings arrive as forecasters warn of a repeat of the 2024 summer, with the strongest El Niño since 1950 building in the Pacific. Five states have already declared drought. August was the warmest on record since 1901, and the monsoon ran 12.6 percent below average.

The International Labour Organisation and think-tank CEEW project that continued warming could cut India's GDP by 4.5 percent by 2030, equivalent to losing the working capacity of 35 million full-time jobs.

Aarti Khosla, Founder-Director of Climate Trends, said, "Where green cover has disappeared, temperatures have risen with it, and that is a cost India's communities are already paying for." She noted that the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 has confirmed overshooting 1.5°C is now unavoidable, and that governments at CBD COP17 in Yerevan have been told fewer than half their biodiversity targets, including restoring 30 percent of degraded ecosystems by 2030, are on track.

The study recommends maintaining existing vegetation, preventing unnecessary green-cover loss, and promoting ecological restoration as core parts of climate adaptation and land management.