IMD Monsoon Forecast 2025: The India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday (Apr 15) that India is expected to witness above-average monsoon this year. The prediction has raised the expectations of higher agricultural and economic growth in the country.

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“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm,” IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. El Nino conditions, which result in below-normal monsoon in the Indian subcontinent, are also not likely to develop this year.

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What is above-average monsoon?

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According to the weather department, average or normal rainfall is defined as ranging between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm for the four-month season.

The current forecast of 105 per cent this season has 5 per cent margin of error, according to a Bloomberg report.

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What does it mean for farmers?

The summer monsoon is responsible for India’s total annual rainfall and is vital for replenishing aquifers and supporting farming activity. Monsoon arrives when wind currents shift to blowing from the southwest and bring humid air. This warms the land, leading to clouds formation and rainfall in the country.

Seasonal monsoon rains are crucial for replenishing reservoirs, which are used for irrigation. Insufficient rain can result in water shortages, crop failures and raises imports.

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The above-normal monsoon will relieve farmers who have been concerned with the early onset of summer. The IMD has predicted an above-normal number of heatwave days from April to June for the country.

Earlier this month, the US Department of Agriculture’s international arm forecast a record wheat harvest for a third year in India following last year’s improved soil due to above-average rainfall. It also predicted a near-record rice crop this year, with an assumption of a normal monsoon this year. 

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According to the weather department, last year’s monsoon rains were 108 per cent of the long-term average, which proved to be the best rainy season in four years, followed by the weakest monsoon in half a decade in 2023.

(With inputs from agencies)