US–India trade deal: What’s inside Trump’s “very big” hint?

US President Donald Trump has fuelled fresh speculation about an imminent “very big” trade deal with India, weeks after top negotiators from both countries wrapped up closed-door talks aimed at slashing tariffs and expanding market access.

Speaking at the ‘Big Beautiful Event’ at the White House on Thursday, Trump told supporters: “We just signed with China yesterday. We are having some great deals. We have one coming up, maybe with India. Very big one,” as quoted by Reuters. Trump said the United States would not sign trade deals with every nation indiscriminately. “We’re not going to make deals with everybody. Some we are just going to send them a letter, say thank you very much. You are to pay 25, 35, 45 per cent. That’s the easy way to do it,” he said, emphasising that his team preferred forging substantial bilateral pacts over blanket tariff threats, as reported by Reuters.

High-stakes negotiations target $500 billion trade milestone

The comments follow intensive four-day negotiations held earlier this month between US and Indian trade teams in New Delhi. Talks focused on expanding market access for industrial and agricultural products, tariff reductions, and tackling non-tariff barriers.

According to people familiar with the negotiations, the goal is to transform annual bilateral trade from its current level of around $190 billion to $500 billion by 2030, a figure Indian and US officials have cited repeatedly as a shared ambition.

Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said after the latest round of talks: “PM Modi and US President Trump met in February 2025… Both our leaders have decided to enter into a bilateral trade agreement which will be mutually beneficial for both the economies, businesses on both sides and the people of both countries. We are negotiating to make a nice, fair, equitable, and balanced agreement to promote business,” as quoted by Reuters.

Earlier this month, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also signalled optimism that a deal could soon be finalised, saying both sides had found “common ground” to meet their strategic and economic interests, as per Reuters.

India–US trade: A crucial and growing partnership

The United States is India’s single largest trading partner. According to India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, bilateral goods and services trade between the two countries reached $191 billion in 2023–24, with Indian exports to the US valued at over $118 billion and imports from the US at around $73 billion.

The US accounted for roughly 18 per cent of India’s total exports in 2023–24, making it India’s top export destination. Key Indian exports include pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering goods, gems and jewellery, and software services.

Conversely, the US is a major supplier of crude oil, LNG, advanced machinery, aircraft, defence equipment and agricultural products to India. US energy exports to India alone exceeded $10 billion in 2023, as per the US Energy Information Administration.

Trade in services also forms a vital component of the economic relationship, with India’s IT sector providing services worth over $40 billion annually to US clients, according to Nasscom data.

Investment ties are similarly robust. US foreign direct investment in India stood at $67 billion as of end-2023, while Indian companies have invested over $40 billion in the US, generating thousands of American jobs.

Talks come amid tariff threats

Trump’s comments also underline the high-stakes backdrop for the negotiations. The US President has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 45 per cent on countries unwilling to strike new trade deals with Washington.

While the Biden-era Phase One agreement with India had kept tariff escalation largely at bay, Trump’s second-term approach has seen renewed threats of sweeping duties unless partners sign what he calls “fair and reciprocal” deals.

Indian officials see a deal with the US as critical to securing market stability and boosting exports amid a challenging global environment marked by trade fragmentation and geopolitical tensions.

For the United States, expanding trade ties with India is seen as a key element of its Indo-Pacific strategy, offering a counterweight to China’s economic influence in the region.

A path forward?

Negotiators from both sides remain tight-lipped about precise timelines or the final shape of any agreement. But Trump’s remarks suggest both governments want to signal progress ahead of their next planned high-level meeting.

With India–US trade already on a record-setting trajectory, any new pact will have to address thorny issues ranging from tariff harmonisation to digital trade rules and standards. But if achieved, officials on both sides believe it could cement one of the 21st century’s most consequential economic partnerships.

(With inputs from the agencies)