India slips to 6th largest economy, falls behind UK despite strong growth outlook: Here's why
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "India slips to 6th largest economy, falls behind UK despite strong growth outlook: Here's why")
Representational image. Photograph: (Pexels)
The drop in global ranking is likely linked to a recent revision of the base year, which lowered its nominal GDP estimates. The weakening rupee has also contributed to the decline in India’s ranking.
India has fallen below the United Kingdom (UK), slipping to being the sixth-largest economy with an estimated GDP size of $4.15 trillion, below the UK’s $4.26 trillion in fiscal years 2026-27. The updates followed after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 14 raised the real GDP growth forecast of India for FY27 to 6.5 per cent, and domestic estimates predicted a real growth of 7.4 per cent in FY26.
The drop in global ranking is likely linked to a recent revision of the base year, which lowered its nominal GDP estimates. The weakening rupee has also contributed to the decline in India’s ranking.
Has India’s 4th-largest economy's goal been delayed?
India’s GDP stood at $3.92 trillion in 2025, falling slightly behind the UK’s $4 trillion. As a result, expectations of India surpassing Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in 2025 have been pushed back. Updated government data released in February shows nominal GDP revised down from Rs 357 lakh crore to Rs 345.5 lakh crore under the new series. At an average exchange rate of Rs 87 per dollar for FY26, India’s GDP in dollar terms remains below the $4 trillion mark.
India is now projected to overtake Germany by 2031, two years later than earlier IMF estimates. However, in domestic terms, the economy recorded a strong compound annual growth rate of 8.56 per cent between 2021 and 2025, marking the fastest growth among major economies.
“The change in the rank reflects a new base year of GDP where nominal GDP is lower than the old base GDP by 4 per cent. Further, the rupee depreciated against the dollar by 11 per cent in FY26. The combination resulted in the GDP ranking revision,” Gaura Sengupta, chief economist, IDFC First Bank.
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Meanwhile, Chief Economic Advisor to the government of India V Anantha Nageswaran has earlier said that India is likely to cross the $4 trillion-mark comfortably in 2026-27 based on recent projections; however, relative global rankings will depend on external factors.
