Oil prices slipped in early trading on Thursday (Jun 18) after the United States and Iran signed an interim deal to end the war in the Middle East. Shortly after the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz “instantly” and the American blockade of Iranian ports will end “immediately”. The development would mark the end of the largest energy disruption in history that rattled oil prices and global markets.
As of 0005 GMT, Brent crude futures were down by 1.12 per cent, at $78.66 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell by 1.28 per cent to $75.81 a barrel.
The benchmarks declined once again after briefly rising when US President Donald Trump on Wednesday (Jun 17) threatened Iran with a renewed bombing campaign if Iranians “don’t behave”.
Also read | ‘Unfair for them not to have some’: Trump says Iran can have ballistic missiles as peace deal takes effect
“The sell-off extended as energy markets continued to aggressively price in a faster-than-expected return of Iranian barrels following the recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said, as quoted by Reuters.
The 14-point MoU has started a 60-day negotiation period during which Iran will allow maritime traffic to pass through the Strait of Hormuz toll-free. The deal also calls for the key shipping route to be restored to its full capacity within 30 days.
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The preliminary agreement leaves several contentious issues unresolved, most notably Iran’s nuclear programme. It also commits the United States and its partners to developing a $300 billion recovery package aimed at rebuilding Iran’s economy and infrastructure.
Should the deal be fully implemented and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the current supply crunch could eventually give way to a substantial oil surplus. In its monthly market report released on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil supplies could exceed demand by 5.05 million barrels per day in 2027 as Middle Eastern exports return to international markets.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is increasingly considering the possibility of raising interest rates later this year to curb inflationary pressures. Higher borrowing costs could slow economic activity and weigh on fuel consumption, potentially dampening oil demand.
Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike this year – a notable shift from three months ago, when none anticipated tighter monetary policy.


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