Trump's approval drops sharply as economic concerns and Iran war cloud GOP midterm elections outlook

A new poll by The New York Times and Siena College found that most voters believe President Donald Trump made the wrong decision by going to war with Iran, creating political challenges for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. The survey showed that nearly two-thirds of voters opposed the war, with many saying the conflict was not worth the cost. Independent voters were especially critical, with almost three-quarters saying the decision was wrong. Trump’s approval rating dropped to 37 per cent, the lowest level recorded in his second term by the Times/Siena polls. Economic concerns also increased, with majorities of voters disapproving of his handling of the economy, inflation, immigration, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Independent voters have become increasingly dissatisfied with the president. Sixty-nine percent said they disapproved of his performance, compared to 62 per cent in January. Nearly half of independents said Trump’s policies had negatively affected them personally. Overall, 44 per cent of voters said Trump’s policies had hurt them, an increase from 36 per cent last fall. “He’s not doing what he said he was going to do,” said Brent Klein Jr., a Republican who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 and 2024. “That’s my biggest frustration with him.” Klein, a 43-year-old cleaning company owner from Branson, Missouri, said he was ‘very pissed off’ about Trump’s decision to strike Iran without congressional approval. “I just want my family to live a good, healthy life,” he added, and to not have to “constantly pay more and more and more for food products and stuff.”

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Republicans still maintain some advantages ahead of the elections, particularly through congressional map redistricting in Republican-led states, which could create several favorable House districts. However, Democrats are also struggling to improve their image with voters. Only 26 per cent of voters said they were satisfied with the Democratic Party. Many Democratic voters expressed frustration with their own party. Forty-four percent of Democrats said they were dissatisfied, criticizing party leaders for not taking stronger action against Trump. Despite dissatisfaction with both parties, Democrats currently hold a 10-point advantage over Republicans in a hypothetical midterm election matchup among registered voters. Democrats also showed stronger enthusiasm among likely voters.

The poll revealed growing opposition to further military action against Iran. 52 per cent of voters said Trump should not resume military operations if negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program fail. In addition, 63 per cent of voters, including more than a quarter of Republicans, said presidents should not use military force without congressional approval. Still, most Republican voters continue to support the conflict. Seventy percent said military operations should continue if talks fail, and many believe the war will stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Economic concerns have worsened since the conflict began. Rising gas prices and inflation have increased financial pressure on households and businesses. The survey showed that nearly half of voters now rate the economy as poor, an increase of 11 percentage points since January. Even Republican voters were divided in their assessment of economic conditions. Only 28 percent of voters approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, marking another decline from earlier in the year. Trump recently dismissed concerns about the economic impact of the conflict, saying Americans’ financial struggles were not influencing his decisions regarding Iran. Immigration remains Trump’s strongest issue politically, with his approval rating on the topic holding at 41 per cent.