The Location Syndrome: As Trump woos Munir, Pakistan’s diplomatic geography matters more than its political history

Pakistan is often called a failed state. At other points, it has been called a rogue state or client state. That, of course, refers not to the country in general but to its army-centred ruling elite, which often sidesteps or steamrolls the interests of ordinary citizens to uphold its power base and worldview. Military coups and martial laws at various times only testify to this fact. The question to ask is: how is it that despite all the criticism and flak it faces, the military apparatus that runs the Pakistani state, sometimes in letter and almost always in spirit, has the right of way both at home and, as it turns out, abroad?

The answer might lie in a simple insight: Pakistan’s estate is a vital asset–which is to say that what matters seems to be more about real estate than democracy, governance, nationhood or constitution that helps an elite stay firmly in the saddle despite hard evidence that Islamabad overlooks and/or nurtures terror groups or Most-Wanted figures such as Lashkar -e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and its leaders or the infamous Osama Bin Laden who was killed next to the Abbottabad cantonment.

After US President Donald Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir merely weeks after India’s May 7 Operation Sindoor that targeted Pakistan-based terror camps (followed by army-blessed funerals for some of those killed in the operation), it is time to think deep to understand what is really going on.

Tongue firmly in cheek, and perhaps with bull’s eye precision, we can say that Pakistan’s special position is more a matter of diplomatic geography than political history. Never mind the Internet memes that mock the Trump-Munir meeting at a “private” luncheon.

“Location, location, location,” is a popular phrase in the real estate business that stresses on the importance of geographical coordinates in determining the value of a property. Though the statement is often attributed to British real estate tycoon Harold Samuel, it has been traced back to a classified ad in the Chicago Tribune newspaper in 1926.

Pakistan’s location has been a key asset that has saved it from many a diplomatic woe—and one might add, from the way its uniformed rulers manage it.

You can say that thrice, like in the old saying. This is because Pakistan is strategically located next to Afghanistan, Iran and China, all of which have influenced diplomatic positions in Washington and Moscow at various points in time.

When invading Russian soldiers marched into Afghanistan in 1979 as part of the then Soviet Union’s plan to install a puppet regime, it was Pakistan that helped the US counter it by hosting the “Mujahideen” or liberation groups towards the fag end of the Cold War.

Bin Laden’s ideas of forming a global jihadist movement can be traced back to his presence in Pakistan. It is ironic that not only the rise of his Al Qaeda group that carried out the 9/11 attacks in New York in 2001, but also the Taliban that currently rules Afghanistan and bitterly opposes the US, rose from the remnants of the Mujahideen. US foreign policy has more often than not been guided by short-term expediency than long-term principles, and that might explain how the best of India’s diplomatic efforts and evidence do little to sway the State Department.

As Trump woos Munir, who was appointed Field Marshal after Operation Sindoor, what we need to remember is that under the Republicans in general and the current White House incumbent in particular, the US is less a guardian angel of democracy or civilised diplomacy and more a power that looks after its strategic interests and trading might. It is generously helped by an influential Jewish lobby that has suddenly shifted America’s focus away from trade talks with China towards a combative engagement involving Israel and Iran. India’s Operation Sindoor had nothing to do with Iran, which has emerged as some kind of a benign opportunity for Pakistan to engage with the US.

After the din ebbs on the Israel-Iran conflict, China will remain exactly where it is on the world map, helping Islamabad play a geopolitical card vis-à-vis the US.

It is time for a reminder that for all practical purposes, Munir is now in control of the elected civilian government. The aftermath of Operation Sindoor, like that of the Kargil War in 1999, gives the army an upper hand. Not that it needed any. Opposition leader and former prime minister Imran Khan has been in jail for two years after an arrest led by the paramilitary inside the premises of the Islamabad High Court in a case involving his confrontation with the country’s army.

Barely a week after the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack that led to Operation Sindoor, the Pakistan government named Asim Malik, a serving military general, as its National Security Adviser. A former head of the spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), he is no ordinary general. His appointment to the NSA’s job, over the head of civilian officials, shows who is in command in Pakistan.

It might be fair to describe some of the events and non-events following Operation Sindoor as a setback for Indian diplomacy but it pays to remember that not all of it can be linked to what New Delhi does or does not do. The sheer location of Pakistan and the way Islamabad’s military lords use it, involves a grim lesson on the importance of location.

The “geo” tag in geopolitics exists for a reason.