Russian forces are setting the stage for a new offensive in Ukraine’s east

As Russian forces step up attacks on critical infrastructure in eastern Ukraine and wage a cataclysmic campaign to gain total control over the southern port city of Mariupol, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine said Monday that Moscow is deploying tens of thousands of soldiers for a renewed assault.

“Russia is preparing another offensive, hoping to break our national resistance after all,” Zelenskyy said. “The occupiers concentrated tens of thousands of soldiers and a huge amount of equipment to try to strike again.”

Ukrainian and Western officials have warned for days that Russian forces, having failed to seize Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government, were regrouping. Moscow has said its aim is now to seize areas it does not already control in the Donbas, an area in the eastern part of the country, and to solidify its hold on the southern coastal region from Kherson to Mariupol.

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Days of aerial attacks against airports, railways and other infrastructure in central and eastern Ukraine critical to the Ukrainian military’s logistical operations have been setting the stage for Russia’s campaign in the Donbas region.

“In my view, this great offensive has already begun,” Vadym Denisenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian interior minister, said on national television Monday.

Since Friday, Russian forces have fired a missile at a train station, killing more than 50 people in the eastern city of Kramatorsk; struck an airport in the central city of Dnipro; and launched more than 60 attacks in and around the eastern city of Kharkiv.

The aerial attacks appear to be having more success than ground forces in gaining territory. Ukraine’s military claimed to have repulsed several assaults by Russian troops moving south from the strategic city of Izyum — currently under Russian control and a key anchor point geographically for any eastern offensive — that resulted in the destruction of Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery equipment. As Russia regroups, it is likely to keep shelling Ukrainian positions and infrastructure to tie up Ukrainian resources.

Ukrainian officials noted that this new offensive is a continuation of an already brutal campaign to pummel the Ukrainian public into submission. Fighting has been raging across eastern Ukraine since the start of the war, decimating towns and cities and forcing millions to flee.

Russia might attempt to surround Ukraine’s forces and defeat some of their best soldiers in the Donbas before engaging in major combat operations to secure the region, according to U.S. defense officials, military analysts and Ukrainian officials.

Whatever the Russian strategy, the Ukrainians have proved their willingness to stand their ground even in the face of overwhelming force.

In Mariupol, outmanned Ukrainian fighters have held out and kept fighting despite being surrounded for weeks under heavy bombardment.

Securing Mariupol could free up Russian forces — both to combat Ukrainian forces seeking to take back territory in Kherson and to assist its forces in the Donbas.

The Russians have now essentially trapped the remaining Ukrainian defense forces in two locations in Mariupol — the main port in the southwest of the city and the Azovstal steel plant in the east, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank.

Ukraine’s military said Russian forces, backed by artillery and air support, were attempting to storm their remaining strongholds while Britain’s Ministry of Defense warned Monday that Russia may employ phosphorus gas munitions in Mariupol as fighting intensifies.

White phosphorus munitions are used by militaries around the world to create smoke screens and mark targets. But when used as a weapon, they can indiscriminately rain fire from the sky.

“White phosphorus can burn people to the bone, smolder inside the body, and reignite when bandages are removed,” according to Human Rights Watch.