Oil spikes, airlines stumble, AI stocks soar: The sectors gaining and losing most from the Iran war

The Iran conflict is rapidly redrawing the global investment landscape, creating distinct market winners and losers as investors reposition around energy shocks, geopolitical risk and defensive assets. An analysis of global markets shows oil producers, defence-linked sectors, AI-driven technology stocks and the US dollar benefiting from the crisis, while airlines, energy-importing economies and vulnerable currencies face mounting pressure.

Oil prices have risen sharply amid fears of supply disruptions across the Middle East, with investors closely monitoring shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important routes for crude exports. Reuters reported that oil prices have climbed by roughly 40 per cent since the conflict escalated, dramatically altering expectations around inflation, interest rates and global growth. In physical markets, crude has remained well above $100 a barrel and, at one stage in early April, briefly traded at nearly twice its pre-war level. The surge has strengthened oil-exporting economies and energy companies, while sharply increasing operating costs for sectors heavily dependent on fuel, particularly aviation and logistics. Although a record 400-million-barrel release from strategic petroleum reserves by major economies, along with alternative sourcing by traders, has softened some supply pressures, strain across the global energy system continues to intensify.

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Reuters also noted that airlines have come under pressure from both higher fuel costs and disruptions to regional airspace. Earlier this month, Air India temporarily suspended select international routes due to rising aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices and airspace restrictions, while increasing international fuel surcharges by $10 to $50 per passenger. IndiGo also introduced a fresh fuel surcharge as escalating oil prices pushed operating costs higher. Several carriers have been forced to reroute or suspend flights across parts of the Gulf region, adding operational strain at a time when fuel prices are already climbing.

AI and defence stocks emerge among strongest gainers

Despite the broader geopolitical uncertainty, investors have continued pouring capital into artificial intelligence-linked companies, particularly large US technology firms. Reportedly, AI-related stocks have remained resilient even as wider market volatility increased, reinforcing their position as a dominant force in global equity markets.

South Korea’s SK Hynix crossed the $1 trillion market valuation mark for the first time on Wednesday, joining memory chip rivals Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology as surging investor demand for AI-linked semiconductor stocks continued to drive gains across the global chip sector, Reuters reported.

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Defence and cybersecurity firms have also attracted stronger investor interest amid rising security concerns and expectations of increased military spending globally. At the same time, traditional safe-haven assets including the US dollar and gold have strengthened as investors seek protection from geopolitical instability. The report suggests markets are increasingly splitting into sectors that benefit from prolonged instability and those exposed to inflation, fuel dependency and weakening trade conditions.

Fashion and luxury sector

The global luxury sector is entering a phase of stabilisation rather than contraction, according to Kearney’s 2026 Global Luxury Industry Outlook, which projects market growth of 2–4 per cent this year, lower than broader industry forecasts of 3–5 per cent. The report says luxury brands are navigating slower demand, changing consumer behaviour and persistent economic uncertainty, with growth expected to diverge sharply across regions, product segments and buyer demographics.

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Emerging economies and airlines face growing strain

The economic pressure is particularly visible in energy-importing regions across Asia and parts of Europe, where rising oil costs threaten to intensify inflation and weaken currencies. Reuters highlighted that Asian currencies and bond markets have faced renewed stress as investors move capital towards safer assets.

Meanwhile, the conflict is reinforcing a wider global market divide. Oil exporters, AI-driven technology firms and safe-haven assets continue attracting flows, while sectors dependent on cheap energy and stable trade routes face mounting uncertainty. The result is an increasingly polarised market environment shaped as much by geopolitics as by economic fundamentals.