&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "Oil price to hit $250, or even go beyond $370? Worst-case scenarios amid Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, listed")
Dire predictions are being made about rising oil prices amid escalating rhetoric around the Iran-US war, with no end in sight to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Depending on the source, forecast prices range from $250 per barrel to as high as $372 per barrel.
What could drive the worst oil prices?
Scenarios include further escalation of the war, particularly in the context of US President Donald Trump warning of potential attacks on power facilities and bridges in Iran. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and supply losses from various facilities, including Iranian ones, are also key factors. There are additional concerns that, if the Houthis disrupt Red Sea routes for oil transit, another critical supply corridor could be affected.
The base-case consensus for 2026 averages, such as the Reuters poll of 38 analysts, stands at around $89 per barrel for Brent crude. However, the upper end of predictions is significantly higher.
Worst-case predictions for 2026 crude oil
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Among the most extreme forecasts is that of Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. In a Substack article, he predicted prices could reach $372 per barrel in a “high disruption” scenario. This would involve a global supply drop of nearly 16 per cent, potentially caused by major attacks on Iranian export facilities or Red Sea shipping routes, combined with low demand elasticity.
CNBC host Jim Cramer suggested prices could reach $250 per barrel by the third quarter of 2026 in the event of a prolonged US–Iran war and sustained disruptions.
Dave Ernsberger, President of S&P Global Energy, also estimated a range of $200–$250 per barrel if war-related disruption of the Strait of Hormuz persists.
Macquarie Group strategists, led by Vikas Dwivedi, expect prices to exceed $200 per barrel if the conflict continues into the summer.
Stratas Advisors projects prices could rise towards $190 per barrel if the Strait remains closed for another full month.
Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah, Vice President of oil markets, predicted prices could reach $135 per barrel, or remain above $110 if current conditions persist for four months.
Also read: US crude oil price jumps to $115 per barrel after Trump’s profane threat to Iran – Details here
Oil prices rise despite US output strength
Oil prices are already rising, even if they have not yet reached the worst-case scenarios outlined above, despite US confidence in its status as a top producer. The broad consensus price range currently sits between $100 and $190 per barrel. Some US officials and Wall Street analysts have flagged $200 per barrel as a possibility in worst-case scenarios involving prolonged conflict beyond three to four months. The average conditional forecast remains around $134–$135 per barrel.
Analysts note that even short-term disruptions have already driven significant upward revisions to 2026 price forecasts. Ultimately, the trajectory of oil prices will depend on the duration of the conflict, diplomatic resolutions, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
