Nepal and Tibet floods: Warning sign of a looming disaster recorded two days before tragedy struck

Two days before the Nepal flash floods, there were clear signs of an ominous event in the Himalayas waiting to happen, an expert has said. According to Dr Hamish Pritchard, a glaciologist from the British Antarctic Survey, two days before the catastrophe, ground temperature was at its highest in the last two years.

Meanwhile, on the day the surging waters washed away everything in its way, the temperature of a lake located at an altitude of 5,100 metres and about 10 km away from the glacier that is believed to have collapsed was the highest this year. Climate experts are still trying to figure out the exact cause of the deluge that has killed more than 900 people, with more than 4,000 missing in Nepal and 500 in Tibet.

One of the explanations right now is that a glacier crashed, causing a nearly 4,000-foot chunk of ice to smash into the valley. "These high temperatures would have weakened the snowpack, filled crevasses with water and thawed the bonds between ice and rock that hold these glaciers in place," Pritchard told Daily Mail.

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Another reason that was initially flagged was a magnitude 5.2 earthquake on August 26. However, later analysis showed that the ground shook because of the glacier that collapsed on the Langtang-Lirung mountain. Ice mixed with rock and sediment cascaded down the mountain and temporarily blocked the Lhende Khola River. A large lake was temporarily formed and soon broke through, causing the devastating flood.

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Climate change increases the risk of such events

Scientists say the Himalayas are warming much faster than the rest of the world. The event happened in the monsoon season, when avalanches become more common because of the heavy snowfall and rain in the region, Pritchard said. The rivers were full and soil saturated at this time, setting the stage for the disaster. He added that the conditions got a further push because of “climate change that is causing rapid retreat of Himalayan glaciers.”

Why Nepal is more susceptible to such events

The terrain in Nepal is already dangerous, with steep slopes making it more vulnerable to landslides, rockfalls, and ice cliff collapses. A warming world means the conditions will only get worse. Permafrost, the layer that keeps glaciers stable, is thawing because of climate change, loosening rocks and mud, and increasing the chances of more such collapses.

Satellite data from 1976 to 2024 shows that melt rates have increased everywhere on Earth besides Iceland. This rate has been 25 per cent faster in the Himalayas in the last decade than the long-term average.