Israel elections: Final TV polls indicate that the Netanyahu bloc is one seat short of a majority

Before the 1 Novemberelection, all of the final television network polls indicated that Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu's religious-right coalition would come up just short of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset (the unicameral legislature of Israel).

An opposition leader could build a coalition and take back power with the slightest swing in his favour, according to polls that were shown on Channels 12 and 13 news on Friday and Kan public television on Thursday.

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These polls all assigned the Netanyahu-led group 60 seats. According to all of the surveys, the present coalition parties won 56 seats, while the non-aligned Hadash-Ta'al party with a majority of Arabs won 4 seats. This is in line with earlier polls that were broadcast over the past several weeks.

As per Israeli election rules, publication of surveys are prohibited in theimmediate days before the election. These surveys are not consistently accurate,but influence both politicians and voters.

The far-right Religious Zionism, allied with Netanyahu's coalition, was anticipated to be the third-largest party in the Knesset with 14–15 members, trailing Prime Minister Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid by 24–27 seats.

Religious Zionism, a far-right coalition led by former minister Bezalel Smotrich and including the anti-LGBT Noam faction and MK Itamar Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, has recently risen in the polls, largely at the expense of Likud, though Netanyahu's party has made gains at the expense of its partners in the final weeks leading up to previous elections.

In all three votes, Religious Zionism was followed by National Unity, which won 10–11 seats. Defense Minister Benny Gantz's Blue and White, Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope, and political newcomer Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff like Gantz, make up the center-right slate.

Gantz has promoted himself as a potential prime ministerial candidate, although his chances of putting together a coalition seem to be poor.

Shas and United Torah Judaism, two ultra-Orthodox parties that support Netanyahu, regularly received 8 and 7 seats, respectively, in all three polls.

The religious-right group led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu will come up just short of winning a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, according to all of the final television network surveys conducted prior to the election on November 1.

It was projected that the right-wing secularist Yisrael Beytenu would gain 5–6 seats, followed by the center–left Labor, 5–6; the left–wing Meretz, 4-5; and Ra'am, 4.

All three polls showed that Ayelet Shaked's Jewish Home and the Arab nationalist Balad fell short of the 3.25% electoral threshold, however Balad was placed at 2.7% in the Channel 13 poll.

The upcoming election, the fifth since April 2019, was called following the June breakdown of the power-sharing administration led by then-prime minister Naftali Bennett and Lapid, which had barely managed to remove Netanyahu in June 2021 but had survived for a year.

(With inputs from agencies)

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