How Iran war has become the most unpopular decision of Trump's presidency

The possibility of a renewed war between the United States and Iran is adding to President Donald Trump's political troubles ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections. American forces reportedly carried out fresh strikes on Iran's Qasem islands on Monday, a day before voters head to the polls.

The conflict has become one of the most contentious and unpopular issues of Trump's second term. During his election campaign, Trump presented himself as an anti-war candidate and promised to keep the United States out of foreign conflicts.

However, eight months into the conflict, there are no clear signs of a breakthrough in negotiations. Mixed signals from the Trump administration and the growing energy crisis have added to concerns that the economic situation could worsen and potentially push the country towards a recession.

Rising energy costs add to public anger

American consumers are also feeling the impact of the conflict through higher fuel and electricity bills.

Gasoline prices have risen by around 39% to 45%, taking the national average to between $4.16 and $4.33 per gallon. Prices in some states have climbed as high as $5.39 to $5.91 per gallon.

The rising cost of energy is also putting pressure on household budgets ahead of winter. According to a Guardian article by energy economist Mark Wolfe, families using heating oil could face bills around 50% higher this winter, adding nearly $900 to their annual heating expenses.

Low-income households, including families dependent on Social Security and minimum-wage workers, are particularly vulnerable to the increase. Even middle-class families are struggling to absorb an additional $100 to $150 a month in expenses for petrol, groceries and home heating.

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the Iran war has added $468 billion to global fuel costs since March 2026, with the US accounting for $160 billion of the increase.

American consumers have faced an estimated additional fuel expense of $471 per person, the highest among the 169 countries covered by the analysis, compared with a global average of around $60.

CREA attributed the higher burden to America's heavy dependence on private petrol and diesel vehicles, high fuel consumption and a slower shift towards electric vehicles.

Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran war

Public opinion surveys also point to growing dissatisfaction with Trump's handling of the conflict.

According to a new Pew Research Centre survey, around two-thirds of Americans (65%) disapprove of Trump's handling of US military action in Iran, while 33% approve.

Opposition to the conflict has increased since it began. In March, shortly after the war started, 61% disapproved of Trump's handling of it, compared with 37% who approved.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday found Trump's approval rating remained near its lowest level ahead of the midterm elections. Although Trump is not on the ballot, he remains a central figure in the contest. Only 32% of respondents approved of his performance, unchanged from the previous week and just above his record low of 31%, recorded two weeks earlier.

The poll also put Democrats eight percentage points ahead of Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, with 46% support against 38%. The lead had narrowed from 11 points a week earlier.

The cost of living has also emerged as a major concern for voters. Around 78% said it would be a very important or the most important factor in deciding their vote. On this issue, Democrats led Republicans by 43% to 32%.