How China controls a critical ingredient for Western ammunition | Gravitas

What's the link between cotton and weapons? Well...More than you can imagine. While U.S. President Donald Trump has been escalating the West Asia conflict, America has also been grappling with replenishing its depleting weapons stockpiles.

Europe, too, has been ramping up ammunition production amid the looming threat posed by Russia.

However, China holds the key to these plans. Here is how:

Boosting weapons production is not possible without nitrocellulose, also known as guncotton. It is a highly flammable material made from cotton by exposing it to nitric acid or another powerful nitrating agent.

Crucially, guncotton is a vital ingredient in the production of propellant powder used in firearms and missiles. Besides this, it is also used in inks, coatings, and pharmaceuticals.

Where does China come into the picture?

According to the International Trade Centre, China accounts for nearly half of the world's nitrocellulose market and is a key supplier of this material to both Europe and the United States.

Reports suggest that Europe relies on China for nearly 70% of the raw material required for guncotton production. But why does the West have to depend on China for guncotton in the first place?

After the Cold War, many Western countries reportedly reduced their defence manufacturing capacity as governments expected lower ammunition requirements.

Additionally, operations at several nitrocellulose plants were scaled down. This situation changed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which compelled NATO countries to dramatically increase ammunition production.

Reports suggest that the shortage of guncotton is primarily due to demand rising much faster than production capacity.

Can the West reduce its dependence?

According to reports, companies in both Europe and the United States are attempting to expand domestic nitrocellulose production capacity.

This comes amid growing concerns that China could disrupt access to guncotton during a future conflict, thereby hampering ammunition production.

China also has significant leverage over the West due to its dominance in the critical minerals industry. After all, it produces around 90% of the world's rare earth elements.

In April last year, Beijing restricted rare earth exports to the United States in response to President Trump's tariff measures.

While Trump initially threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, he later announced a trade and economic agreement with China in November 2025.

According to Trump, China agreed to eliminate export controls on rare earth elements and other critical minerals, while ending its retaliatory measures against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers.

After Trump visited Beijing in May this year, the White House stated that China had agreed to address U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages and restrictions on the sale of critical minerals and rare earths.

A month later, China reportedly issued rare earth export licences to three leading American automakers, including General Motors.

The U.S. is still trying to reduce dependency

However, the United States is also working to reduce its reliance on overseas supply chains for defence production.

A day earlier, President Trump signed an executive order making it more difficult for U.S. defence contractors to obtain waivers allowing them to purchase critical minerals from China.

Companies seeking such waivers will now have to demonstrate that they searched for alternative suppliers and provide a clear plan to reduce their dependence on prohibited sources.

This comes as many critical minerals used in missiles, aircraft, and other advanced military systems still rely on Chinese suppliers.

The Pentagon has also been urging defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing to rapidly expand weapons production while eliminating vulnerabilities within the military supply chain.

The bigger challenge

However, considering that reducing dependence on Beijing will take considerable time, depleting ammunition stockpiles remain a major concern for the United States and its allies.