Germany’s far-right AfD projected to score its biggest win in key state election, may fall short of majority

The far-right, anti-immigration, populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has emerged as the winner in a crucial state election in Germany on Sunday, with projections saying it will win more than 44 per cent of the vote in the eastern region of Saxony-Anhalt.

As per the exit polls, AfD is more than doubling its support and securing a historic result. The AfD seems to on the brink of becoming the first far-right party to gain power in Germany at the state level since the Second World War.

Initial exit polls showed the party would secure 44.4% of the vote, more than predicted.

The Christian Democrats (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz were trailing far behind with around 18.4%—a huge dip from the 37. 1 per cent in 2021. The far-left Die Linke was third with 9.3%, with the Social Democrats on 8.4% and the Greens on 8.7%.

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The smaller BSW reached the 5% hurdle needed to re-enter parliament, against expectations. The party, an offshoot of Die Linke, has agreed to cooperate with the AfD on issues such as energy price reform.

Voter participation was at a record high of 76.5%.

Votes were being counted, but it appeared initially that the AfD might have failed to secure an absolute majority – the condition it has said is central to it taking power, given its refusal to govern with another party.

The CDU and all other mainstream parties have also refused to collude with the AfD in a government, in what is referred to as a Brandmauer, or firewall.

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The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has been classed as “rightwing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, addressed jubilant supporters saying, “We have made history in this country”. He added that his party was ready to ⁠reach out to ‌all powers ‌that ‌strove for political change.

“We extend a hand to all ‌democratic forces that wish to pursue better policies,” said Siegmund after ⁠exit polls were published. He said themes such as migration and domestic security were not up for debate.

The CDU described its result as “bitter” but said it would not back down from its refusal to rule together with the AfD.

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Franziska Hoppermann, general secretary of the CDU, called it a “defeat overall” for the Christian Democrats.

In one recent poll, only 9% of voters in Saxony-Anhalt said they were satisfied with Merz’s politics. Siegmund called Merz “a very good campaigner for the AfD”.

Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader, said the result gave her party a “clear government mandate” and that it would “talk to all the parties” to work out a strategy as to how the AfD could rule.

The small state has been governed since 2002 by Merz’s conservative CDU, together with two smaller parties. Merz has failed to fulfil his promises of resetting Germany’s struggling economy, while the AfD has been making regular and steady gains since it entered parliament in 2017 and is now the leading opposition party.