Outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday (Jan 19) criticised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for saying one thing in private and something different in public to maintain his coalition government.

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Is Netanyahu putting political survival over the Gaza ceasefire?

Speaking to the New Yorker, Blinken was asked whether Netanyahu had been truthful in his discussions with the United States. Blinken replied, “In the moment of those conversations, yes,” followed by laughter. He added, “I’m laughing because given the incredibly complicated coalition politics that exist in Israel, he proceeds in many ways on the basis of what gets [him] to tomorrow and keeps [his] coalition together.” Blinken said, “He might say one thing to me, and then depending on the audience he’s before next, maybe that takes a little bit of a different turn.”

Also read: Hours before Gaza ceasefire, Netanyahu warns Hamas 'won't move forward' until Israel receives hostage list

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Netanyahu’s handling of recent developments regarding a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas appears to validate Blinken’s observation.

Coalition pressure on the Gaza ceasefire deal

Members of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition have expressed open opposition to the ceasefire, threatening to leave the government if the deal proceeds. For instance, the Religious Zionism Party said they would only continue supporting Netanyahu if he agreed to resume full military action against Hamas following the first phase of the agreement.

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Also read: From Zakaria Zubeidi to Ahmed Barghouti: 5 Prominent names among 737 Palestinian prisoners to be freed by Israel

Staying true to their warnings, the far-right Otzma Yehudit party announced their intention to resign from the coalition on Saturday (Jan 18) after the Israeli cabinet approved the agreement. In a statement, they declared their disapproval of the agreement, calling it “reckless.” The group’s members, including ministers and committee chairs, said they would leave their posts, citing the government’s approval of the ceasefire as the reason. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also condemned the deal, saying, “I will not sit in a government that, God forbid, will stop the war and not continue until complete victory over Hamas.”

Netanyahu’s political balancing act

In a pre-recorded statement on Saturday (Jan 18) seemingly to manage his coalition’s discontent, Netanyahu described the deal as a “temporary ceasefire” and assured that Israel could resume fighting if the terms were not met. He added that both US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump had agreed that military action could resume if necessary. He added that they assured him that Israel would receive necessary military support from the United States. Netanyahu said, “Israel will not rest until all of its war goals are completed,” which includes ensuring the safe return of all hostages.

Also read: Netanyahu stalls Gaza ceasefire deal until Hamas drops ‘last-minute concessions’; group denies backtracking

However, this is not the first time Netanyahu’s approach to the ceasefire has caused confusion. On 16 January, his office stated the cabinet would not approve the deal until Hamas conceded to “last-minute conditions,” a claim quickly refuted by Hamas. This contradiction came after key mediators, like Qatar and the US, confirmed the deal, and congratulations started pouring in from all over the world, with families of hostages celebrating the news of their return.

Did global pressure force Netanyahu to finally approve the ceasefire?

Netanyahu also faced mounting pressure from international leaders, including US President-elect Donald Trump and key mediators like Qatar. Trump has reportedly been firm in his approach to the hostage agreement. During a phone interview with NBC News on Saturday (Jan 18), he said that the agreement “better hold.” When asked how confident he was about the release of hostages, Trump said, “We’re going to see very soon, and it better hold.” He added that he had urged Netanyahu to do whatever was necessary to end the conflict while ensuring the agreement was upheld. “Just keep doing what you have to do. This has to end,” Trump said.

Also read: Donald Trump says Gaza truce 'better be done' before his inauguration

A Wall Street Journal report citing sources revealed that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, delivered a strong message to Netanyahu, pressing him to finalise the deal. According to sources, Witkoff told Netanyahu, “The president has been a great friend of Israel, and now it’s time to be a friend back.” As per the same report, Trump's “all hell to pay” message warning of severe consequences if hostages were not freed before his inauguration on 20 January was meant for both Hamas and Israel.

Cautious optimism

As the first phase of the ceasefire begins, global attention is focused on how this development might shape the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. The war has already claimed the lives of over 46,000 Palestinians, with health officials in Gaza saying that most of the victims were women and children. The Israeli military, meanwhile, reports 405 soldiers killed since the start of its invasion of Gaza.

(With inputs from agencies)