Fact check: From China election claims to inflation, here's what Trump got right — and wrong — in his national address

President Donald Trump used his Thursday (Jul 16) night address to make a sweeping case for his administration, mixing newly declassified intelligence on the 2020 election with familiar talking points on stolen election, immigration, crime, inflation and the economy. The speech, delivered just four months before the vital US midterm elections, was dominated by Trump's allegation that China interfered in the 2020 presidential race. But he also rattled off a series of claims about record-low crime, illegal immigration, inflation and employment.

Some claims stand up to scrutiny. Others leave out important context or are simply inaccurate. Here's a closer look.

Claim: China meddled in US elections

Verdict: Denied by Beijing

China has denied Trump's claims. Speaking at a press conference, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said, “The relevant claims made by the US side are pure fabrications and malicious smears that have long since been proven to be groundless statements.”

"China has... no interest in the US election and has never interfered in it," Lin said.

Claim: Stolen election

Verdict: False

Trump has spent years sowing suspicions about ​electoral outcomes, falsely claiming his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden was rigged. He has also claimed without evidence that mail-in voting is rife with fraud, voting machines are vulnerable to manipulation and non-citizen ​voting is widespread.

Notably, more than 60 lawsuits by Trump and his allies produced no ruling establishing fraud capable of changing the outcome of the 2020 election, while recounts, audits, and his own Justice Department found none.

Claim: Zero illegal immigrants entered the US in the past 14 months

Verdict: Misleading

Trump said the United States had recorded "zero illegal aliens" entering the country over the past 14 months.

The claim appears to stem from US Customs and Border Protection data showing 14 consecutive months with zero migrant releases into the US from Border Patrol custody. That, however, is not the same as saying no one crossed the border illegally.

NewsNation reported in May that law enforcement agencies along the US-Mexico border were still encountering migrants attempting to enter the country unlawfully.

Claim: America's murder rate is the lowest since 1900

Verdict: Largely true

Trump also highlighted falling crime, saying the country's murder rate is at its lowest level in more than a century.

That claim is backed by a report from the Council on Criminal Justice, which projected that if FBI data follows current trends, the US homicide rate for 2025 could fall to roughly four murders per 100,000 people — the lowest level recorded since comparable national data began in 1900.

Claim: Inflation posted its biggest monthly decline in more than six years

Verdict: True, but incomplete

Trump pointed to June's inflation figures as evidence that his economic policies are working.

The Consumer Price Index fell 0.4 per cent during the month, its sharpest monthly decline since April 2020, largely because petrol prices dropped sharply.

But economists have warned against reading too much into a single month's data.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh cautioned that declaring victory over inflation would be premature, while economists have warned that energy prices could rebound and geopolitical tensions, including the conflict involving Iran, may push inflation higher again.

Claim: Trump inherited the worst inflation in 48 years

Verdict: False

Trump repeated his frequent claim that he took office after the worst inflation in 48 years.

Inflation did reach 9.1 per cent in June 2022 during Joe Biden's presidency, the highest annual rate in about four decades. But that peak came more than two years before Trump returned to office. By January 2025, inflation had already fallen significantly.

The United States has also experienced much higher inflation historically, including a record annual rate of nearly 24 per cent in 1920.

Claim: The US has the biggest and best military

Verdict: Partly true

Calling the US military the "best" is ultimately a matter of opinion.

Calling it the "biggest" is false, because nations like India and China have significantly more troop members that the US.

But if Trump was referring to defence spending or military capability, the United States remains the world's largest military spender by a wide margin.

Claim: More Americans are working today than ever before

Verdict: Technically true, but lacking context

Trump has made this claim repeatedly during his second term. In absolute numbers, more Americans are employed today than at any point in history. That's largely because the US population and labour force continue to grow over time.

A better measure of labour market strength is the share of people who are working.

As per a WRAL report, Labour force participation and the employment-population ratio remain below previous peaks, while employment growth during Trump's current term has been weaker than under Barack Obama, Joe Biden and even Trump's own first administration.