Economic cost of obesity set to reach 3.3 per cent of global GDP by 2060: Study

Overweight and obesity prevalence is set to cost the global economy 3.3 per cent of GDP by 2060, according to a new study by the World Obesity Federation and RTI International. The study, which was peer-reviewed and published today in BMJ Global Health, analyses the current economic impact of overweight and obesity in 161 countries. It provides the first-ever country-specific global estimate of the economic impacts of the non-communicable disease (NCD), mainly due to avoidable healthcare costs of cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease attributable to obesity.

The study found that if the number of people living with obesity remained at 2019 levels, US$2.2 trillion could be saved. A five per cent reduction in the projected prevalence of the NCD between 2020 and 2060 would result in an average of US$429 billion in global annual savings.

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China, the United States and India are expected to have the biggest increase in cost to GDP. It is predicted to cost China over $10 trillion, the United States over $2.5 trillion and India nearly $850 billion (2.47% of GDP). Other countries with the economic costs of overweight and obesity projected to exceed $100 billion include Germany, Canada, Australia, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Japan. Of all those countries, it is expected to cost the United Arab Emirates the highest proportion of GDP (11.04 per cent).

Estimates suggest that obesity is currently costing 2.19 per cent of global GDP. The estimated economic loss per capita in 2019 ranges from US$6 in lower-income countries and US$1,110 in higher-income countries.

Johanna Ralston, CEO, World Obesity Federation said, “These estimates of the economic impact of overweight and obesity should alarm governments across the world. The persistent stigmatisation of people living with obesity and policies that do not reflect the most recent evidence have led to failing approaches that ignore obesity’s root causes."

The study also says that total economic costs are likely to increase by four times in high-income countries whereas the increase is expected to be between 12-25 times in low and middle-income countries. In the WHO Europe region, they are expected to more than double compared with a 26-fold increase in the WHO Western Pacific Region.

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Both direct and indirect costs were analysed in the study. The former includes medical and non-medical expenses while the latter includes the costs in the process of seeking formal healthcare, such as the cost of travel for patients and caregivers. Other indirect costs include economic loss from premature mortality, missed days of work, and reduced productivity while at work.

Medical fees makes up nearly all (99.8 per cent) of direct costs on average across all countries. The cost of premature mortality contributes to a significant portion (69.1 per cent on average) of all indirect costs. Indirect costs have a greater impact on GDP than direct costs (61-88 per cent vs 12-39 per cent across income groups respectively).

The World Obesity Federation estimated earlier this year that one billion people will be living with obesity by 2030. Last year with RTI International, the organisation launched a pilot study for the economic impact of overweight and obesity, focusing on eight countries. The World Obesity Federation is calling for world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly to address the root cause of obesity through systemic solutions, rather than focusing on individual responsibility.

"This study has highlighted the need for urgent, concerted and holistic action to address the global rise in overweight and obesity prevalence. We can alter this through the right policy and private sector attention to reduce factors in the environment that can cause the non-communicable disease," Ralston said.

(With inputs from agencies)