Coronavirus outbreak could get bigger in winters: Study
Coronavirus
Around the world scientists and pandemic, forecasters are working frantically to predict how Covid-19 will pan out and when will it peak. A new model suggests that even if cases dip during the hotter summer months, the numbers can rise again once winters set in.
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Scientist in Basel and Stockholm have predicted that once coronavirus cases peak in winters it could impact 100 times more people than we are witnessing currently.
Through this research paper is being currently peer-reviewed the scientists who have published this paper say that their research is based on sound research of seeing the impact of seasonal changes on coronaviruses in the past.
A significant challenge with making accurate predictions is the lack of consistency around the world on who is being tested and how the cases are being counted, for example. Some countries, like South Korea, have aggressively tested a broader population sample, while others have focused only on those with specific travel histories and contacts.
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Individuals with extremely mild cases may also go undetected because they do not seek medical attention or mild symptoms are mistaken for the common cold.
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Declaring a peak doesn’t mean total infection numbers are coming down, but rather that new cases are tapering off.
For instance, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the general director of the world health organization, declared on February 19 that china had reached peak Covid-19, as the rate of new infections had begun to decline. However, the total number of infected in china since then has continued to rise, from 74,280 that day to over 80,000 in a matter of a couple of weeks, according to WHO data.
At the end of it, peaking of the virus is inversely proportional to the availability of the vaccine, which experts say could take up to 18 months, in absence of vaccine even measures like putting cities into lockdown may not be enough.