Study warns of extreme coastal flooding 50 years in advance, thanks to El Nino

El Nino has led water in the Eastern Pacific to expand so much that the levels have now climbed as high as 1.3 feet, according to data from NASA’s Sentinel-6 satellite. Researchers with NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio have flagged this rise, which has happened because of the weather phenomenon.

Climate researchers have warned that these warm waters will further fuel the upcoming storm season. The tides are already abnormally high this year because of the gravitational effects of the Moon’s 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle, making matters worse. A new study, which is being peer-reviewed, has forecast a tenfold rise in "extreme sea-level risk" along coastlines from Alaska to Chile during the 2026-27 El Niño.

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Study coauthor Thomas Monahan, a research fellow at Oxford, told New Scientist that this is already being seen in California, where "major flooding is occurring in the aftermath of tropical storm Rachel." He further warned that “the biggest peaks in the tides are expected to occur during Thanksgiving week and Christmas week.”

Tides and El Niño

The study focused on understanding how current tidal conditions and Super El Niño might impact coastal communities. Researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts and the University of Central Florida were also part of the study. They also took into account the variables that differentiate this year's El Niño from other strong historic El Niño seasons, like the one from 1877 to 1878.

Also Read: El Niño 2026 heats up to become strongest in 1,000 years

Their calculations showed that these factors "may produce 99th percentile extremes in up to half of all high waters at some sites with potential major flooding and ecological impacts." Researchers compared these disasters to extreme events projected to happen in the near future. Under standard climate frameworks, such as the UN IPCC’s Shared Socio-economic Pathways, these levels of impact weren't expected until 40 or 50 years from now.

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They cited evidence which shows that sea levels rise more steeply during really strong El Niño events, adding that this is part of the reason for this high risk.

El Nino brought extreme temperatures to almost all parts of the world this year. The oceans have heated up, with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) stating that the sea-surface temperature anomalies have reached significantly elevated levels across the tropical Pacific. It is yet to peak, which will happen in November-December, with models predicting that the effects will be felt well into 2027.