&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "Maduro captured: A new Polymarket account made $436,759 overnight on Operation Absolute Resolve. A wild guess?")
At 22:46 EST on Friday (January 2), US President Donald Trump gave "Operation Absolute Resolve" the go-ahead, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured within hours. On the same day, a supposedly brand new account on Polymarket got $30,000 into bets on the removal of Maduro, and by Saturday morning, it had made $436,759.61, according to Axios’s Herb Scribner. This looks eerily suspicious, as if someone was tipped off about the operation and used the opportunity to make money on the world's biggest prediction website. But, likely, it was merely a wild guess that made the person rich. There is no clarity over where this number took off from, but an archive.ph screenshot is being widely circulated on social media.
Bets on Maduro being ousted from power spiked on Friday night
Maduro was captured in a two-hour-and-twenty-minute mission by air, land and sea by the US military and taken out of his country, shocking the world. Brazil's President Lula da Silva called it "yet another extremely dangerous precedent for the entire international community". Trump said later that they were "going to do this four days ago, three days ago, two days ago, and then all of a sudden it opened up." Besides, according to the Wall Street Journal, there were six contracts of Maduro-leaves-power bets on Polymarket, and a total of $56.6 million worth of bets were placed. $40 million of it was called that Maduro would leave by November 30 or December 31, both of which proved wrong. On Friday night, there was a sudden spike in bets on Maduro being ousted.
Meanwhile, according to bettors, Maduro's chances of being freed aren't very bright this year. There is a mere 1 per cent chance of his release by January 9, and only 15 per cent by the end of 2026.
How Operation Absolute Resolve went down
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In order to increase the element of surprise, the military had a false start with Trump ordering the strike four days earlier, but no action was initiated. "Over the weeks through Christmas and New Year, the men and women of the United States military sat ready, patiently waiting for the right triggers to be met and the president to order us into action," General Dan Caine, the US's highest-ranking military officer, told reporters on Saturday morning.
Trump on Venezuela Maduro operation
Trump called it "an incredible thing to see," and that it was like "watching a television show." His order came when it was almost midnight in Caracas. More than 150 aircraft, including bombers, fighter jets and reconnaissance planes, swarmed the skies. At around 2 am local time, loud explosions were heard, and smoke was seen rising over the city. Maduro, who was under the watch of Cuban bodyguards, tried to make it to a safe room, but failed. "He was trying to get to a safe place, which wasn't safe, because we would have had the door blown up in about 47 seconds," Trump said. Venezuelan Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino said on Sunday that the operation led to the killing of a "large part" of Maduro's security team and "soldiers and innocent civilians".
