Explained: Why Italy missed out on a third consecutive FIFA World Cup qualification

The Italian national team had another day to forget in the FIFA World Cup qualification on Thursday (Mar 31) as they missed out on football’s biggest carnival, having lost to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The defeat meant Italy would not play in the FIFA World Cup for the third consecutive time and would have to watch the tournament from home. So what are the major reasons for Italy’s failure to qualify for the FIFA World Cup 2026?

Failure at academy level

Italy won the 2006 FIFA World Cup, having enjoyed success two decades ago and being top of the world before the downfall began. Exiting the 2010 FIFA World Cup at the group stage might have looked like a fluke, with many past champions enduring the same fortune. However, the root of the cause started with academy structures.

Italy’s football league Serie A is designated as one of the best in the world, but has been on a decline in recent years. No team from Serie A has won the Champions League since 2010, while Inter Milan and Juventus’ run to the final in the last decade came unrewarded.

While France with Kylian Mbappe, England with Harry Kane, Germany with Kai Havertz and Spain with Ferran Torres have been blessed with some of the best strikers of the current generation, that is not the case for Italy. Italy’s current team relies on the services of Moise Kean, a Premier League outcast, while none of their best players are part of powerhouse clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona and other clubs.

Gianluigi Donnarumma and Riccardo Calafiori remain a handful of names who play for big clubs. Compare this to other teams like England, Spain, France and Germany, their national team players represent big clubs like Real Madrid and other powerhouses.

This clearly highlights Italian football’s lack of quality and lack of interest, along with top-quality players.

Lack of replacements

Italy had a wealth of talent with the likes of Paolo Maldini, Francesco Totti, Andrea Pirlo and others during the 2000s. They won the 2006 FIFA World Cup and reached the final of the Euro 2000 with a wealth of players. However, the lack of good products at the club level meant that Italian players produced were not up to the mark to replace players like Maldini, Totti and Pirlo. This directly resulted in a drop in quality at the national team. Lack of vision from clubs also resulted in teams not producing good-quality players.

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Revenue model

Taking a look at club facilities, Italian football does not have a recognised home stadium like Wembley of England and has seen a lack of investment. Teams like Roma and Lazio, AC Milan and Inter Milan and Chievo Verona and Hellas Verona share the same stadiums with no modern facilities. Modern facilities directly impact the ticket sales and revenue generation model of the club and also the player development area.

Lack of advanced features when compared to clubs in England, Germany and Spain sees Italian football produce less revenue and in turn miss out on investment.

Powerhouse companies are more interested in investments in England and Spain than in Italy because of the modern facilities and revenue model. Lack of funding for a long period of time has directly resulted in a lack of quality both on and off the field.

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The fluke

Missing on the 2018 FIFA World Cup may have been a fluke, but considering what has transformed over the years, Italy’s fluke moment was the 2020 Euro success. Italy defeated England in the final in 2021, but that now remains a fluke. Italy's missing on three consecutive World Cup appearances is not a fluke but indeed their success in Euro 2020.

The Azzurri have paid a high price for not addressing key issues like player replacement, academy investments and vision. While blame could be laid on the managers, considering other teams and their investment in the youths, Italy was clearly undone.

Norway’s investment in the youth paid off as they finished group winners in the qualification stage and hammered Italy both home and away.