75% of Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers may vanish by century’s end: Study

A new scientific study has warned that the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region could lose up to 75 per cent of its glacier ice by 2100 if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels. The region is the primary source of major river systems and supports nearly two billion people across Asia.

The findings, published in the Journal Science, highlight the importance of limiting warming under the Paris Agreement targets. The study also shows that if warming is kept to 1.5 degree celsius, 40–45 per cent of glacier ice in the Himalayas and the Caucasus could still be saved.

Global glacier loss worsens with warming

Globally, not more than 24 per cent of glacier ice would remain if temperatures rise to 2.7 degree Celsius, the path projected under current climate policies. In contrast, if we succeed in holding warming to 1.5 degree celsius, we could preserve 54 per cent of current glacier mass worldwide.

Regions such as the European Alps, North American Rockies, and Iceland which are critical to human populations are particularly vulnerable. At 2 degree celsius warming, these areas could retain not more than just 10–15 per cent of their 2020 glacier volumes. The most concerning part is that Scandinavia could lose all glacier ice entirely.

Long-term effects will persist

Researchers emphasise that even if global temperatures stabilise, the loss of glacier will still continue for decades. It will over centuries for glaciers to slowly retreat to higher altitudes, before they can reach a new balance.

A team of about 21 scientists from 10 countries used eight glacier models to assess over 200,000 glaciers under various warming scenarios. The study is released at a crucial time when the UN’s first conference on glaciers in Dushanbe is ongoing. It is bein attended by over 50 countries.