Kamala Harris for president: After Biden exits, his vice president enters race, but can she win?

US Vice President Kamala Harris was 'kicked up' in the presidential elections after incumbent Joe Biden exited the race against Republican ex-president Donald Trump and endorsed her as the Democratic nominee. Getting into the race is one thing, but can she win? What are the aspects working against her?

Let me start with a rather unusual predictive mechanism, which often gets it right more than others like opinion polls: the punters. And they're still giving Trump the upper hand. The lead that Trump has over Harris among bookmakers is considerably higher, almost unassailable.

Also read: Kamala Harris secures delegates to become Democratic nominee for US president

They are reportedly giving Trump a 35-point lead on winning the election, if foreign betting platforms like Polymarket are to go by. That's nearly a 65 per cent chance for Trump to win the elections, even if he loses the popular vote. Another punting site PredictIt gave 39 per cent chance to Harris, still way behind Trump who is at 60 per cent.
 

Part of the reason for the lack of interest in significant chunks of American population for Kamala Harris, is the acrimony and so-called 'Julius Ceaser-ing' of Biden that eventually led him to quit. There is a sense of annui about the circumstances which led to Biden's exit, or shall we say ouster, from the presidential race, that too after having done one debate with Trump, which proved to be his undoing. His decision came at the end of a concerted attempt within the Democratic party and donors. One after the other, Democratic Congressmen from House of Representatives and Senate publicly asked him to step aside. Nancy Pelosi, the speaker emerita and the dame of maneouvrings, told Biden it's time to hang in his gloves.

While the socialists like Bernie Sanders and extreme leftists were relatively supportive or quiet about this, many other Democrats- particularly those seeking re-election in November - felt that Biden's running would hurt their own chances. Several donors either halted funding Biden, or pledged funds to Harris, who was indeed working quietly in creating her own war room, gathering support from public and the moneybags as Biden struggled in the past two months. 

As soon as Biden exited, several top figures from politics, business and the entertainment industry endorsed her. This includes former president Bill Clinton and his wife and former presidential contender Hillary. The only significant departure was that of Barack Obama, under whose presidency Biden had served as vice president.

The problem is, all these machinations were so out in the open, that the Julius Ceaser-Brutus analogy was inevitable. The only difference was, it was not a single Brutus, but a whole section of the party and support base, that essentially betrayed Biden, though it's arguable that he probably deserved it. 

While the Democrats, including Kamala herself, are doing a balancing act of praising Biden and portraying the current vice president as the best option as Democrats go into a now wholly altered convention in August, the whole thing leaves a bad aftertaste. It will be a mountain to climb for Democrats to invigorate their support base in favour of Kamala, which had mostly given up on the election since poll numbers went down for Biden, exacerbated by his gaffes and debate disaster with Trump. 

That then brings us to the next question: Is Kamala Harris a popular politician?

FiveThirtyEight, the site that compiles national opinion trends, has a hint in its latest tally of poll of polls regarding Kamala's popularity. To the survey question 'Do Americans approve or disapprove of Kamala Harris?', 51.4 per cent disapproved, as against 38.3 per cent approvals, as on July 22. Worst among the polls compiled by the site is the one by HarrisX-Forbes, which put her disapproval ratings at 56 per cent.

So in spite of this, can she still pull off a victory over Trump? Money speaks in American politics and the next four months will see who the greenback favours. The full campaign funding numbers will be available only at the end of this month but here is some context: While Harris did break records with an $81 million fundraising just hours after being brought to the contest, we must not forget that each major episode in Trump's political life- his court appearances, convictions and bid on his life- was followed by a funding rush. How much funding he got after the failed shooting will be clear only later, but consider this: he raised $50 million soon after felony convictions. In June, the Trump campaign's cash in hand was $45 million more than the Biden campaign.

Also read: RNC poked fun at Kamala Harris with her coconut tree speech. She is having the last laugh

Then there is the media properties of Trump, including Truth Social, whose stocks surged 30 percent soon after the assassination bid. That had made the valuation of Trump Media & Technology Group soar to $7.6 billion. Can the rich Democratic donors bridge the gap for Harris, by putting the money where their mouth is? That remains to be seen. 

And then there's the issue of her likeability.

As a coloured person of Indian and African-origin parentage, it would have been a natural fit for Kamala to appeal to the minority groups in American politics: the Blacks, Asians and Hispanics. But her political career, starting as a public prosecutor in California where she alienated many in the Black community, to her latest handling of the southern border migrant surge crisis which is a sensitive issue for the Hispanics, it is a lose-lose for both communities. In her transition from public prosecutor to California's attorney-general, her stance on various issues of the criminal justice system are best described as opportunistic flip-flops. For instance, when she became the west coast state's attorney-general, she defended the death penalty, years after opposing it as a district attorney in San Francisco.

While it hardly matters in local politics, Harris has often made woke positions on a number of global issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict, which hasn't made her a lot of friends in the international community. This is the reputation she has to shake off, in the next four months, and that's a tall order.

And then, there's Trump.

Battle-hardened by a bloody assassination attempt that came at the end of a criminal conviction and ongoing court cases across states, Trump is still the favoured candidate in much of America's working class, white-majority states. By the sheer force of its larger populations, some coastal states like California and New York might push Kamala through in the popular votes, but electoral votes - the unique decider in American presidential polls - is a different ballgame. There, the support Trump enjoys is not limited to a region. He is favoured to win in much of the lily-white communities in the north, several states in the Bible Belt down south, as well as in the 'rust belt' states for whom his 'America first' approach is appealing. 

In spite of all the above, one cannot call this election yet. Because this is not an election like any other. The past few months have been topsy-turvy for both the Republican and Democratic camps. There's still a lot at stake, but the only difference is that this time, there is much less lack of unity in the Republican front. Even his primary rivals and most acerbic critics like Nikki Haley have come around in full endorsement of the former president at the Republican National Convention this month. But the situation with Democratic National Convention in August is going to be totally different. Will there be uneasy, or openly opposed views expressed against her? Will Obama break his silence on how the last few weeks of the infighting would damage the party in the long run? 

Also read | Like father, like son: Donald Trump Jr. under fire for calling teen daughter 'sexy'

And more importantly, will Kamala Harris be a one-shot candidate? Will she be used as a stop-gap arrangement for this election cycle, only to be replaced by someone else- Michelle Obama being one strong possibility-in 2028 when the odds will be much better for the Democrats? 

That is the key question we should be pondering upon in future. But for now, those betting on Kamala Harris' winnability in 2024 should hold their horses.


(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)