China’s state-owned firms operate or finance 78 ports across 32 African nations, including strategic East African hubs like Kenya’s Mombasa Port and the halted Bagamoyo project in Tanzania. Djibouti, home to China’s first permanent overseas military base near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, epitomises Beijing’s maritime expansion, reinforcing its naval power projection across critical trade routes.
East Africa stands at a crossroads where economic ambitions intersect with geopolitical realities. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has transformed the region’s infrastructure but at a cost, mounting debt and sovereignty concerns. As former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned, “China’s financing mechanisms often saddle countries with debt and dependency, rather than lifting them up.”

Spanning 18 countries and key maritime routes, East Africa’s strategic value has drawn global powers into competition. While China’s debt-driven model raises alarm, India offers a collaborative alternative, emphasising mutual benefit and regional stability. In 2019, Tanzanian President John Magufuli halted the $10 billion Bagamoyo port deal, condemning the exploitative terms as “unacceptable” and equating them to selling Tanzania to China.

Amidst this shifting landscape, India emerges as a credible partner. With historical ties, economic dynamism, and expanding naval diplomacy, India presents East Africa with a sustainable alternative one that fosters maritime security, infrastructure development, and financial sovereignty, steering the region away from China’s debt trap toward self-reliance and stability.

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The debt conundrum

China’s engagement in East Africa has led to the development of railways, ports, highways, and energy projects. Countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda have benefited from these investments, but at a significant cost. The terms of Chinese loans, often opaque and backed by natural resources or key infrastructure as collateral, pose a major risk of debt entrapment, with broader implications for national security and defence sovereignty.
Kenya: The Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway, a $4.7 billion project financed primarily by Chinese loans, has struggled to generate revenue sufficient to cover debt repayments. There have been concerns that failure to meet obligations could lead to Chinese control over critical transport infrastructure, affecting the country’s strategic autonomy.

Ethiopia: The Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway, another Chinese-funded megaproject, has faced similar financial difficulties. Given Djibouti’s strategic importance as a hub for military bases, including the first overseas Chinese military facility, Beijing’s influence in the region could undermine regional stability and defence independence.

Uganda: The Entebbe International Airport deal raised alarms over a potential Chinese takeover if debt obligations are unmet. Similar concerns have been raised about Uganda’s oil pipeline projects, where excessive Chinese financial involvement could limit the country’s control over its own energy security.
China’s financial entanglements in East Africa extend beyond economic concerns, and they have significant strategic ramifications. The dual-use potential of ports, airports, and railways under Chinese influence poses security risks, as these assets could be leveraged for military purposes in times of conflict. The increasing presence of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Indian Ocean, particularly in Djibouti, underscores the growing militarisation of China’s economic footprint in Africa.
India, with its long-standing engagement in the region, offers a more transparent and security-conscious alternative. By working with East African nations to strengthen sovereign financial models and defence partnerships, India can help mitigate these risks while fostering genuine economic progress

India’s strategic role in East Africa

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As a maritime power with growing global influence, India has been expanding its naval presence in the Indian Ocean and strengthening ties with East African nations. The Indian Navy’s diplomatic outreach, combined with economic and security cooperation, presents a counterbalance to China’s financial dominance. India’s approach integrates hard and soft power elements, ensuring that its engagements contribute to both regional stability and economic growth.

Maritime security and naval partnerships: India has intensified its naval engagement in East Africa, conducting joint exercises, port visits, and defence dialogues with key regional players. The Indian Navy has enhanced cooperation with countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Seychelles, and Mozambique, focusing on anti-piracy operations, maritime domain awareness (MDA), and search-and-rescue missions. Establishing the Information Fusion Centre - Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) in Gurugram further strengthens real-time maritime security collaboration.

Strategic infrastructure development: Unlike China’s debt-driven model, India advocates for sustainable infrastructure development. Investments in port modernisation, inland waterway connectivity, and coastal economic zones in East Africa can provide alternatives to Chinese projects. India’s experience with port-led development, exemplified by the Sagarmala initiative, can serve as a blueprint for East African nations looking to leverage their maritime potential without falling into debt traps.

Naval training and capacity building: The Indian Navy has been actively involved in training East African naval personnel under initiatives like the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) programme. Training in areas such as submarine operations, maritime surveillance, and hydrography enhances the self-reliance of regional navies. India’s expertise in anti-piracy missions, stemming from its successful operations in the Gulf of Aden, adds further value to East Africa’s maritime security framework.

Defensive cooperation and military hardware support: India’s expanding defence exports provide East African nations with an alternative to Chinese military hardware. The indigenous defence manufacturing sector, led by companies like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and private sector companies like L&T, Bharat Forge and TASL, can supply naval patrol vessels, coastal radar systems, and drone-based reconnaissance platforms suited to East Africa’s security needs. India’s non-intrusive approach to defence cooperation, focusing on joint development rather than dependency, resonates with the region’s strategic aspirations.

Economic and blue economy collaboration: India has been strengthening trade and investment ties with East Africa, particularly in the blue economy sector. Fisheries, aquaculture, offshore energy, and marine biotechnology are key areas where India can contribute expertise. The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) provides a platform for structured economic engagement, with India playing a pivotal role in promoting sustainable development.

Diplomatic outreach and multilateral engagements: India’s proactive engagement with African institutions, including the African Union (AU) and the East African Community (EAC), fosters collective economic resilience. The India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) and India’s increasing involvement in UN peacekeeping missions in Africa underline New Delhi’s commitment to regional stability. Strengthening trilateral collaborations with partners like Japan and France, which also have stakes in the region, can further reinforce a balanced maritime security environment.
By deepening its naval diplomacy, economic partnerships, and security assistance, India can help East African nations safeguard their sovereignty while fostering sustainable economic growth. This multi-pronged approach positions India as a natural ally in ensuring a free, open.

Alternative financial pathways for East Africa

While China’s investments have accelerated infrastructure development in East Africa, the hidden costs of these projects' spiralling debt, strategic encroachments, and economic dependency have placed several nations in precarious financial positions. The growing unease among African leaders over the long-term consequences of Beijing’s economic influence signals a crucial need for alternative partnerships prioritising sustainability over subjugation. This is where India emerges as a viable and trusted ally. By leveraging its historical ties, strategic investments, and maritime partnerships, India offers East Africa a development model rooted in mutual respect, economic sovereignty, and regional stability, one that fosters long-term growth without the weight of financial coercion. To mitigate the risks of economic overdependence on China, East African nations must strategically diversify their financial partnerships and adopt more sustainable development models. While China remains a dominant investor, accounting for over 20% of Africa’s external debt, with $153 billion lent between 2000 and 2019, there are viable alternatives that can provide both financial flexibility and long-term economic resilience.

Strengthening regional alliances: The African Union (AU) and regional economic blocs such as the East African Community (EAC), comprising Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, must enhance their collective bargaining power in foreign investment negotiations. A unified approach could prevent exploitative loan agreements and ensure investments align with long-term regional development goals.

India, with its historical and growing economic engagement in Africa, and bilateral trade exceeding $90 billion in 2022, can play a key role in fostering diplomatic and economic collaboration. This collaboration is poised to grow further, with a target of reaching $200 billion by 2030. Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal emphasised this potential during the India-Africa Business Conclave, stating, "We firmly believe that these sectors have huge potential for collaboration in terms of investment, trade, technology and capacity building between Africa and India." Through mechanisms like the India-Africa Forum Summit and concessional credit lines, India has already invested in sectors ranging from energy to technology, presenting a viable counterbalance to Chinese dominance.

Leveraging western and multilateral institutions: East African nations can harness funding from institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the African Development Bank (AfDB), which offer financing with greater transparency and lower geopolitical strings attached. The AfDB alone committed $2.5 billion in infrastructure financing for East Africa in 2022, signalling a strong alternative to Chinese-backed projects.
India’s strategic partnerships with the Quad nations (U.S., Japan, Australia) and the European Union can further facilitate East Africa’s access to development financing. Japan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Africa reached $3 billion in 2021, focusing on infrastructure, while EU-African trade exceeded €288 billion in 2022, making the EU Africa’s largest trading partner. These channels provide funding with competitive interest rates and technical expertise.

Expanding private investment: Reducing overreliance on Chinese capital requires robust foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies that attract a broader pool of investors. Encouraging FDI from India, Japan, and the Gulf states, where investment in Africa has surged, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations committing over $50 billion in projects since 2016, can foster economic diversification.

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should be incentivised to finance infrastructure projects sustainably. In India, PPPs have successfully driven transport and energy projects, a model that East Africa can replicate. Establishing investment-friendly policies, such as improved regulatory frameworks and tax incentives, will further attract capital while ensuring financial sustainability.

East Africa stands at a defining crossroads, balancing the promise of economic growth with the perils of strategic dependency. While China's investments have fueled infrastructure expansion, they also pose long-term financial and geopolitical challenges. To navigate this complex landscape, East Africa must embrace a strategy rooted in fiscal prudence, regional cooperation, and diversified global partnerships.

India, with its historical ties, strategic investments, and expanding naval presence, is uniquely positioned to support East Africa’s pursuit of a sustainable and sovereign future. During his address to the Ugandan Parliament on July 25, 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated ten guiding principles for India’s engagement with Africa, emphasising mutual respect, open markets, digital empowerment, agricultural development, maritime security, and institutional reform. These principles underscore India's commitment to fostering a partnership that is not only strategic but also deeply attuned to Africa’s aspirations.

As Prime Minister Modi affirmed, “Africa will be at the top of our priorities. We will continue to intensify and deepen our engagement with Africa. We want to walk together with our African partners on the path to progress.” The window for decisive action is narrowing. The choices made today will shape East Africa’s economic sovereignty and geopolitical standing for generations to come. Now is the moment to transform vision into reality.

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(Commander Rahul Verma (Retd) is an Emerging Technology and Prioritisation Scout for a
leading Indian Multi-National Corporation, focusing on advancing force modernisation
through innovative technological applications and operational concepts. With 21 years as a
Naval Aviator, including a distinguished role in the Indian Navy’s Technology Development
Acceleration Cell, he brings diverse aviation experiences, from Seaking Pilot to RPAS Mission
Commander and Flying Instructor.)

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)