Vijay faces floor test in Tamil Nadu Assembly today: Why it’s survival challenge for AIADMK

Actor-turned-politician Vijay who took oath as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister on May 10, paving way for Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government, is facing a crucial floor test today. His government ended the years-long duopoly of AIADMK and DMK in Tamil Nadu. However, this floor test is also a survival test for AIADMK as several MPs are said to be in talks with TVK. After taking his party to become the single largest in Tamil Nadu Elections, Vijay had to deal with a week long political uncertainty before Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar officially invited him to form the government. This was because TVK won 108 seats - 10 short of the magic number of 117 in 234-seat Assembly.

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What are the numbers for Vijay?

TVK formed the government after gaining support of Congress, CPI, CPI(M), VCK and IUML. The DMK finished second with 59 seats, while the AIADMK secured 47 seats. Congress won 5 seats, PMK bagged 4, and IUML, CPI, VCK, and CPI(M) secured 2 seats each. BJP, DMDK, and AMMK managed to win one seat each.

Vijay currently has 107 MLAs because he won from two seats, and has now resigned from Trichy East. Of 107, only 105 TVK MLAs can vote in floor test, due to Court intervening in the case of Tirupattur MLA who won by one vote (matter pending at Supreme Court) and Speaker not being the part of the voting. The Speaker of a Legislative Assembly or Lok Sabha in India does not vote in the first instance during a floor test, but can cast a casting vote only in the event of a tie. Congress 5 MLAs supporting TVK as allies. CPI, CPI(M), VCK, IUML combines to form 8 MLAs providing support for TVK. House strength is also 232 due to Vijay resigning from Trichy East and Tirupattur MLA not voting. So, halfway mark is is 117.

So, Vijay has backing of 118 MLAs - comfortable to sail through.

Also Read: Vijay goes off-script before reading formal oath of Tamil Nadu CM

How is it a test for AIADMK?

After the poll loss, AIADMK has been reportedly split into two: the other half being led by C Ve Shanmugam and SP Velumani. They claim to have the support of 30 of the party's 47 MLAs. Vijay visited Shanmugam's Chennai residence, where the group reportedly extended support to the TVK government. AIADMK General Secretary and leader of the other faction Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) has warned of legal action in case of defection. He has also issued a whip that all party MLAs will follow the directive. OS Manian, speaking for the EPS camp, dismissed all talk of a split, asserting that 47 MLAs had already submitted a signed document to the assembly speaker affirming EPS as leader of the legislative party. The split stems from EPS' overtures to align with DMK after the polls to keep Vijay away from power. The new camp alleges that it directly contradicted the party's foundational principles. Now only the floor test will tell who will these MLAs side with.

The newly elected speaker of the assembly is JCD Prabhakar of TVK and his role is crucial. The speaker is the authority who will decide any disqualification petitions filed after today's vote. If, two-thirds switches side, defection law will not be applied. For the AIADMK rebels, two-thirds of 47 is 32.