States where BJP has NEVER formed a government - and why May 4 poll result matters for the party

Amid the ongoing counting of votes for the assembly elections 2026 on Monday (May 4), the focus is not only on who forms the next government but also on where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to fall short. For the party, the outcome is as much about expanding its geographical footprint as it is about retaining power in existing strongholds. Votes are being counted for 824 seats across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry. Postal ballots are being taken up first, followed by Electronic Voting Machine rounds, with early trends expected within hours and final results likely by the evening.

The Election Commission of India has placed strong rooms under tight security, with results to be declared after round-wise verification. Together, these regions account for nearly 174 million voters, roughly 18 per cent of India’s electorate.

States the BJP has not cracked

Despite its dominance at the national level, the BJP has never formed a government in three major states that are voting in this cycle. In West Bengal, governed by Mamata Banerjee and the All India Trinamool Congress since 2011, the BJP has emerged as the principal challenger in recent years but has not managed to secure a majority, except this time, when the BJP is clearly being seen to debut in the state.

Kerala remains a tough terrain for the party, with politics historically alternating between the Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front, leaving limited space for a third force. Tamil Nadu presents a different challenge, where Dravidian parties such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam have dominated the political landscape for decades. The BJP has largely remained a marginal player, often contesting as a junior ally.

Beyond these states, the party has also struggled to independently form governments in Telangana and in parts of the Northeast such as Mizoram, where regional parties continue to hold sway.

Why May 4 matters

This round of elections is being seen as a test of whether the BJP can make inroads into these long-standing political strongholds. In West Bengal, the party has invested heavily over the past decade to position itself as the main challenger to the Trinamool Congress. While it has expanded significantly across eastern and northeastern India, including a major breakthrough in Odisha last year, West Bengal remains one of the last large eastern states where it has not formed a government, yet.

In Kerala, even a marginal increase in vote share or seats could indicate a shift in a state long defined by bipolar politics. Tamil Nadu, meanwhile, poses a structural challenge shaped by regional identity, language politics and social justice movements. The BJP is contesting as part of an alliance but is also seeking to expand its independent presence.

The contrast is evident in Assam, where the BJP has been in power for a decade, and in Puducherry, where it is part of the ruling alliance. These states will test whether the party can retain its base even as it seeks to expand elsewhere.