Bad news for India? Marco Rubio wants Russian oil waivers to end. Here's what it could mean for you

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday (Jun 2) said that the United States would "like to end" its extension on waivers on Russian oil purchases "as soon as possible". Speaking before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio said the final decision rests with the US Treasury Department, but stressed that the broader policy of the United States continues to favour sanctions on Russian oil exports.

What are these waivers?

The waivers were introduced after the US-Israel-Iran conflict disrupted global energy markets and created concerns over oil supply shortages. They allow limited transactions involving Russian oil already loaded on tankers and stranded at sea, helping vulnerable countries avoid immediate fuel shortages.

Last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended the waiver for another 30 days, arguing that it would help stabilise crude markets and ensure oil reached energy-vulnerable nations.

Amid the Iran war, Tehran disrupted global shipping by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries one-fifth of the global oil supply, including a significant share of India's oil imports. This prompted the US to temporarily ease restrictions on Russian oil already in transit to prevent supply shocks.

What could waiver end mean for India

India is among the world's largest buyers of Russian crude and has relied heavily on discounted Russian oil since the Ukraine war began. In recent months, however, New Delhi has had to balance its energy needs with pressure from Washington. US had earlier claimed that India had agreed to reduce additional purchases of Russian oil. However, India continues to insist that any decision would be based on national interest.

If Washington allows the waiver programme to expire permanently, Indian refiners could face tighter restrictions on Russian crude purchases. Additionally, India may need to increase imports from alternative suppliers such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, the US and African producers.
Furthermore, higher transportation and insurance costs could put pressure on fuel prices as global oil markets become more volatile with supplies remaining constrained.

Will India immediately lose access to Russian oil?

Not necessarily. Rubio's comments suggest the US wants to eventually phase out the waivers, but no immediate decision has been announced. The Treasury Department has already extended the programme multiple times because of continuing disruptions in global energy markets. For now, India continues to benefit from the temporary exemption.

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