Ketan Agarwal murder case: What is considered strong circumstantial evidence under Indian criminal law? Legal expert explains

As the probe into the Ketan Agarwal murder case continues, questions have resurfaced over what qualifies as "strong circumstantial evidence" under Indian criminal law. Under Indian law, circumstantial evidence can form the sole basis of a criminal conviction, provided it satisfies the strict legal standards laid down by the courts. While direct evidence is generally preferred, the Supreme Court has repeatedly upheld convictions based entirely on a chain of circumstances that conclusively points to the guilt of the accused.

The Supreme Court's 5 principles

Mohd Arsalan Pasha, Advocate and Member of the Delhi High Court, while talking to WION, said, "Strong circumstantial evidence is that which satisfies the Panchsheel standard laid down in Sharad Birdhichand Sarda v State of Maharashtra, forming a complete, unbroken chain excluding every hypothesis of innocence. Last seen, weapon recovery, forensic proof, electronic records, and proved motive, when cumulatively established, constitute strong circumstantial evidence."

These require that the circumstances relied upon by the prosecution are fully established, consistent only with the guilt of the accused, conclusive in nature, exclude every reasonable hypothesis except guilt, and form a complete chain that leaves no doubt that the offence was committed by the accused and no one else.

What is circumstantial evidence?

‘Last seen' theory

Indian courts have recognised several categories of circumstantial evidence that may collectively establish guilt. One of the most commonly relied upon is the "last seen" theory. If the accused was last seen with the deceased shortly before the death and fails to provide a satisfactory explanation of what happened thereafter, courts may draw an adverse inference, Pasha said, adding that the closer the time gap between the two events, the stronger the evidentiary value.

Recovery of a weapon

Another important category is the recovery of a weapon or incriminating article. Under Section 23 of the Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023, information provided by an accused in police custody that leads to the discovery of a weapon, bloodstained article or other incriminating material may be admissible, subject to the conditions prescribed by law.

Forensic evidence

Scientific and forensic evidence also plays a significant role. DNA profiling, fingerprint analysis, ballistic examination, post-mortem findings and serological reports have all been recognised by courts as reliable forms of circumstantial evidence, particularly when corroborated by other material on record.

Electronic evidence

Electronic evidence has become increasingly important in criminal investigations. Call Detail Records (CDRs), mobile tower location data, CCTV footage and digital payment trails, including UPI transactions, are now routinely used to establish links between suspects, victims and crime scenes. However, such electronic records must comply with the certification requirements under Section 63 of the Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023, before they can be admitted in court.

Motive

Motive is another relevant circumstance. Although proving motive is not legally mandatory for securing a conviction, courts have consistently held that when motive, opportunity and the alleged act are established together, they strengthen the overall chain of circumstantial evidence.

Pasha said that these five conditions must be read together. Failure to satisfy even one of them can weaken the prosecution's case. He also emphasised that no single circumstance is ordinarily sufficient on its own. Instead, courts examine whether all the evidence, taken together, forms a continuous and unbroken chain pointing exclusively towards the guilt of the accused.