India's solar energy output growth slows in September

India's solar energy output growth slowed in September, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, at a time when coal-fired utilities are facing a shortage of a fuel that accounts for more than 70 per centof the country's power generation.

Growth in solar energy is critical this year as half of India's 135 coal-fired power plants have fuel stocks of less than three days. India expects the coal shortage to last for up to six months.

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State-run Coal India, which accounts for over 80per centof India`s coal output, saw production grow at the slowest rate in six months and supplies at the slowest rate in seven months during September as rain affected output in key mining regions.

Solar energy generation growth slowed to 24.7per centyear-on-year in September from 41 per centin August, an analysis of federal grid regulator POSOCO's daily load despatch data showed.

Other key sources of electricity generation also fell in September, the data showed, with hydro declining 5 per centand gas-fired power falling 31.6per centcompared with the previous year.

A seasonal change in India's power consumption patterns could also increase stress on coal-fired utilities saddled with an acute shortage, and lead to power outages, analysts say.

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"Renewable energy will not be available early in the day and immediately after sunset, when power demand generally peaks during winter in India," a Singapore-based power sector analyst said.

Victor Vanya, director at power analytics firm EMA Solutions, said higher humidity in the coming weeks could lead to a surge in power demand driven by higher air-conditioning requirements, and a rapid deterioration in coal stocks.

"If humidity remains high in the next 2 weeks, there is a highly probability for India to end up in a 'China-like scenario'," he told Reuters. Coal supply shortages in China have led to power restrictions in parts of the country.

However, CRISIL, a unit of ratings agency S&P, forecast 15 per cent-16per centgrowth in solar output during the six months ending March 2022 and a slowdown in overall power demand growth would ease constraints on India`s coal-fired power plants.

"This will further be supported by 5 per cent- 6per centand 3 per cent-4per centgrowth in generation from nuclear and hydro sources," CRISIL told Reuters, adding that widespread outages were unlikely.