New Delhi, India

A combination of victories and defeats characterise the nation's political landscape. As India's general elections get near, there is growing curiosity about the voter base and the preferences of the populace in the world's biggest democracy.

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The presence of strong opposition in Parliament will depend on the results of forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. But INDIA, short for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, cobbled up by disparate regional and national parties to take on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, appears to be tottering.

Recently, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar left the eastern state's 'Mahagathbandhan', or grand alliance, only to be sworn in again after cobbling up a quick coalition with the BJP.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee declared that her party Trinamool Congress or TMC would fight elections in the eastern state alone, and would be more than capable of defeating the BJP. The INDIA alliance is severely harmed by the moves of these two parties, which are strong both politically and electorally.

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Also read: India Elections 2024: Nitish Kumar keeps Bihar politics on tenterhooks; RJD, Congress react to crisis

Furthermore, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal declared that his party will contest all 90 assembly seats in northern state of Haryana on its own, while still contesting Lok Sabha polls as part of the INDIA bloc.

With the elections quickly approaching, all these developments have become quite unsettling for the INDIA alliance.

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Why have these parties distanced themselves from the alliance?

Sanjay Kumar, a psephologist and professor at CSDS Delhi, says this has multiple causes. One is the resistance of the Congress, the key constituent of INDIA alliance, and the local parties to making concessions to each other in seat sharing.

There isn't a single political party evaluating the election race accurately, he said. There is no reasonable division of how many seats they ought to run for and how much they ought to contribute to the alliance. The goal of all political parties is to win as many seats as possible and this is causing a divide within the opposition, said Kumar.

If the alliance is not able to garner enough seats in parliament, will the opposition be able to offer any resistance in parliament? In turn, wouldn't that put democracy itself in jeopardy?

A vibrant parliament that facilitates fruitful debates and discussions is made possible by a significant opposition. It is impossible to question and discuss government policy in the absence of vigorous opposition resistance. It's critical for democracies to operate.

Watch: Election date announced for Indian parliament's upper house

"In such circumstances, everything that occurs within the parliament passes without discussions or judgments, which is not only a danger but also not a healthy sign for the functioning of the democracy," Kumar said, adding, "the alliance will still exist, but its electoral power will decline."  

The ruling BJP will undoubtedly profit from such circumstances. In 2014 and 2019, the party won general elections back to back.

The Modi government will achieve a hat trick if it prevails once more in 2024.

Neerja Chowdhary, a veteran political commentator, calls this a very strong move for the BJP.

The BJP now has its government in Bihar, after Uttar Pradesh. "The entire 'Hindi heartland' comes under their control. The party is looking at reconstituting the NDA [National Democratic Alliance]; they are one by one trying to get their allies back. It looks as if Mr Modi will have his third term with a 2/3rd majority. They would like to be in power to pass legislation," Chowdhary noted.

Is there a way for the alliance to stick together?

Coming together of various parties might help in restoring democracy.  

The Janata government that came into power after the 1976 emergency couldn’t manage to stay in power for more than 33 months, eventually leading to the return of Indira Gandhi, the Congress prime minister who imposed emergency. Yet, the Janata government left an important mark in the political history of India.

“The country needs to have an armed opposition, today we don't have it," noted Chowdhary.

"It may be very good for the BJP, but not for the democratic India,” she said, adding the opposition doesn’t seem to be serious.

Whether or not the INDIA alliance is all talk and no action will be decided after the election results come in.

To that extent, the elections will provide citizens with an opportunity to decide the future of the nation.