India asked to ‘act now’ to avoid fertility crisis as seen in Japan, China
India can face a severe demographic crisis
While we talk about how nations like Japan and China are grappling with a demographic crisis, new research has highlighted that India might not remain immune to the worldwide trend if immediate actions are not taken. A global study published last week in The Lancet journal stated that the fertility rate in India has fallen drastically, from 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. What’s more alarming is the projection that the rate will further drop to 1.29 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100.
It is to be noted that a fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered a replacement level. With increased life expectancy and a falling fertility rate, India can face a severe demographic crisis, similar to what is unfolding in China and Japan.
Top challenges for India
Greying society has its own set of complex challenges. The government is forced to divert more funds towards healthcare and social security while it is left with a shrinking working population to boost economic growth.
This also leads to wealth gaps in society. It is believed that the falling fertility rate fuels a preference for male children over girls, which could further exacerbate the demography crisis.
Experts say India needs to act now.
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"While these challenges are still a few decades away for India, we need to start acting now with a comprehensive approach for the future," Poonam Muttreja, chief of the Population Foundation of India, was quoted as saying by Nikkei Asia.
Also read:China`s population declines for 2nd straight year, drops by 2.75 million to 1.409 billion in 2023
"Economic policies stimulating growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms, will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates," she added.
The middle-income trap
If New Delhi fails to overcome these challenges, India could very well be headed towards the middle-income trap. This happens when once-brisk economies stagnate before reaching high-income status.
India is still a relatively young nation with a median age of little over 30. Its population is also increasing continuously, with the United Nations expecting the total population to rise to over 1.6 billion by 2050.
India definitely has the demographic advantage as of now but the question is whether the nation can maximize it before the society turns greyer.
"A burgeoning aging population is socially and economically unviable as we've seen in countries like China and Japan, which are bringing in younger workers from other countries to bolster their workforce," said Professor Ritu Priya, of the Center of Social Medicine and Community Health at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
(With inputs from agencies)