IMD predicts early monsoon arrival as severe heatwave scorches North and Central India

The Indian Meteorological Department has projected that the Southwest monsoon is projected to hit the southern coast in late May. Once it arrives, it will progress northward across the subcontinent. India is witnessing a heightened heat wave; the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued Red and Orange alerts for a severe heatwave across Northwest, Central, and Eastern India. The temperature in mainland India is fluctuating between 44 and 48 degrees. Uttar Pradesh & Rajasthan have the highest temperature, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh are also burning under the relentless sun and hot dry wind from the deserts in the northwest.

When is the monsoon expected to arrive?

The Southwest monsoon, which accounts for 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall, is likely to arrive on the coast of Kerala around May 26, nearly a week ahead of its standard June 1 onset date. The monsoon has already entered the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, and the southern regions are preparing for the torrential downpours. Once it reaches Kerala, it takes several more weeks to reach the rest of the country. Maharashtra and Mumbai are expected to see monsoon rains around June 2-5. Delhi and most of North India are expected to face it by the end of June.

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How much rain will there be in the monsoon?

The IMD Long Range Forecast places the overall season rainfall at roughly 92 per cent of the long-period average, while Skymet predicts it at 94 per cent. Both agencies point to the development of a strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean between May and July as the reason behind the reduced volume. The first half of the monsoon in June and July is expected to stay relatively stable, while the second half of August and September will see the primary deficit due to the peak of El Niño.